The Application Of Monte Carlo Simulation In The Commercial Real Estate With Income Method

In recent years,our government has increased the regulation of the real estate industry,adhere to the idea of "house is for living,not for speculation",and constantly implement the real estate long-term management mechanism.At a meeting of the politburo of the CPC Central Committee in April,the communist party of China(CPC)reiterated its policy of "not speculating on housing and housing" and made it clear that real estate would not be used as a short-term stimulus.In the changing residential market,major domestic real estate developers have started to turn to commercial real estate development,accelerating the growth rate of China's commercial real estate investment,represented by the comprehensive shopping center emerging market is gradually emerging.Facing the further development of consumer society,commercial real estate will also welcome new opportunities and challenges.As an important part of real estate evaluation,the market demand of commercial real estate has been increasing.Due to the special nature of the commercial real estate,the traditional real estate evaluation methods in practice some problems more or less,once the factors which influence the real estate price volatility,evaluation parameters often change along with the market volatility,using the defects of traditional evaluation method will be more prominent,the error of the evaluation results may be beyond the normal range of acceptable.The accuracy of the professional work of asset appraisal will not only cause unnecessary losses to real estate enterprises,Banks and other stakeholders,but also affect the smooth operation of the market economy.In view of this,this paper proposes the idea of applying monte carlo simulation to commercial real estate income evaluation.Therefore,this paper first analyzes the applicability of several main evaluation methods in the evaluation of commercial real estate,and concludes that the income method is the best one to reflect the value of commercial real estate.Then,the article explains the method of determining the basic parameters of the income method in detail,and analyzes the main problems in the practical application of the income method.Then,the applicability of monte carlo simulation in commercial real estate valuation is analyzed,and the application program of monte carlo simulation in commercial real estate valuation is proposed.At last,the improved revenue method based on monte carlo simulation is applied to the evaluation case of poly water citycommercial square,and crystal ball software is used to conduct monte carlo simulation to obtain the final evaluation result.Through the analysis of the evaluation process,it is found that the income method based on monte carlo simulation can take into account the uncertainty of relevant variables more comprehensively in the evaluation,and the evaluation process is closer to the situation of market fluctuations,so that more objective and accurate evaluation results can be obtained,which has certain practical significance and application value.