Study On The Risk Of Highway Engineering Economic Evaluation

The highway engineering construction project is particularly important because of its special characteristics of long period, large investment, strong public welfare and far-reaching influence on the regional economy. Assessment based on the decision-making phase of the project is the project feasibility study, under the premise of engineering scheme and construction technology allows, investors are most concerned about is the rationality of investment benefit, namely project economic evaluation of reliability. Uncertainty analysis is the main focus of the project economic evaluation, and the uncertainty analysis mainly includes three aspects:probability, sensitivity, and break even. The probability analysis of the existing economic evaluation is only aimed at a specific index, and there is no research on the overall risk of the whole life cycle of the economic evaluation.Therefore based on the study of the economic evaluation of the project risk, project from all phases of risk indicators were selected. At the same time in the risk analysis, taking into account the interaction between the various risk factors, the introduction of risk correlation analysis. In this paper, we choose a basic random simulation method, that is, to control the combination of interval variables model (CIM) and Monte Carlo simulation method and application of this method in highway engineering economic evaluation of the real risk probability analysis. Based on the analysis of the uncertainty of the traditional highway economic evaluation, this paper analyzes the risk from the point of view of the whole process of project implementation from the point of view of risk probability analysis. Studied CIM method and Monte Carlo simulation method for probabilistic analysis of advantages and disadvantages, put forward on the basis of the combination of the CIM model and Monte Carlo method for highway engineering economic evaluation risk were analyzed, and each of the CIM theory and the theory of Monte Carlo are described.Then the risk of the verification table method of highway construction in the whole process of economic evaluation of risk indicators and risk factors to identify, and make the risk index and the list, detailed description and classification of studied the economic effects of the risk factors, the index system is constructed. Using the expert scoring method to analyze the risk factors of risk occurrence probability and the degree of risk loss. Then construct the model of CIM and Monte Carlo, and put forward the modeling steps and the application of attention. The risk factors were analyzed and evaluated with the model, and the risk analysis process was simulated by Ball Crystal software.Finally, the effectiveness of the model is analyzed through case study. By crystal ball software generated risk assessment results and analysis of the key risk factors of the risk index, of the key risk factors, and puts forward the corresponding risk prevention measures, provides scientific basis for the economic evaluation of expressway investment and construction. It is proved that the model constructed by this paper can play a better supporting role in the decision-making stage of the feasibility study in the actual construction road.