Probability Analysis In Highway Engineering Economic Evaluation Based On Monte-Carlo Method

Probability analysis on uncertain factors can identify their extent and rules, providing scientific foundation for economic evaluation accordingly, which makes it more and more important for highway engineering economic evaluation currently. However, models and methods in being of probability analysis, which are all focused on some certain problem, fail to analyze comprehensively uncertain factors on highway engineering economic evaluation. As a result, this paper used Monte-Carlo Method, a basic random simulation method, to study its application to probability analysis in highway engineering economic evaluation in general.Firstly, random simulation principle was studied, and the generation of pseudo-random number was analyzed; furthermore, Monte-Carlo modeling process and its attention points in application were proposed, which supplied some theoretical foundation for its application to probability analysis in highway engineering economic evaluation.Secondly, simulation program for parameters in highway engineering economic evaluation was compiled with Monte-Carlo, and CPI forecasting program combined with gray forecasting method was got. On the one hand, these programs make it possible to analyze changes and rules of parameters themselves, they also offer index related data for highway engineering economic evaluation on the other hand.Thirdly, based on Monte-Carlo principle, simulation modeling for evaluation index of various cash flows was completed. In addition, to afford scientific ground of decision-making, changes and rules of index were analyzed in the case of pre-tax, after-tax, as well as inflation taken into account.Finally, all models in the paper were used in case analysis, which indicated that the application of Monte-Carlo to probability analysis in highway engineering economic evaluation was perfect. Moreover, the paper also provided reference for researchers related.