The Impact Of International Trade On Bilateral Business Trend And Cycle Synchronization

With the level of international trade in our country constantly improving, the interaction between the Chinese economy and the world economy continues to deepen. This article analyzes the effects of trade factors on the economic synchronization between China and various trading partners by both business trend and business cycle. Initially, the GDPs from sample countries are decomposed according to responsive characteristics regarding cycle and trend. Then we demonstrate the cordial importance of tendency fluctuation to overall economic fluctuations. Secondly, the article concludes a comprehensive effect of trading intensity and intra-industry Trade intensity on the economic synchronization between China and her major trading partners. Finally, classifying trading partners according to their levels of economic development, we compare the differences of influences between countries from diverse category. It is shown in the study that the most important indicators of economic correlations are indicators of international trades, including overall and intra-industry trading intensity. In short terms, trade intensity between developed countries and China has greater influence on the bilateral economic comovement than the developing countries does. In the long term, trade intensity between developing countries and China shows more influence on the contrary. Whereas intra-industry trade intensity has a negative impact on economic correlations between China and developing countries in the long term. On the other hand, in short terms, intra-industry trade intensity posts a positive influence on economic correlations between china and her developing partners.