| In the wake of the deepening of globalization,the economic development of all countries in the world is increasingly inseparable.The economies of all countries are linked through transnational economic ties.No country is independent while they are interdependent.On the one hand,the transnational flow of goods and capital with the rapid dissemination of technology and information play a significant role in promoting the economic development of various countries.On the other hand,economic fluctuations in an open economy can be easily spread worldwide through the ‘butterfly effect'.At the same time,with the worldwide spread of production fragmentation and the deepening of the international division of labor system,the production of a single commodity is no longer completed by a single country,but by a number of countries because of the vertical specialization of labor and cooperation of multinational enterprises.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to explore the impact of global value chain division on international business cycle synchronization.Based on the above background,this paper conducts empirical research on the basis of literature review,analysis of dynamic characteristics of international economic evolution and mechanism analysis.Based on the analysis of dynamic characteristics of international economic evolution,the following characteristics are summarized: first,the change of the world economic pattern develops towards multi-polarization on the basis of deepening cooperation;second,the change of the global economic cycle is accompanied by the upgrading and transformation of technology;third,international business cycle synchronization is gradually enhanced.From the perspective of the mechanism of global value chain division on business cycle synchronization,as complementary trade,global value chain trade will promote supply and demand spillover effect,thereby improving bilateral business cycle synchronization.Based on the GDP data from Penn World Table 9.0,input-output data from EORA and other relevant data of 102 countries from 2000 to 2014,this paper constructs an empirical analysis of the impact of global value chain division on international business cycle synchronization.This paper makes a characteristic factual analysis of the international business cycle synchronization which assessed by Markov-switching models and calculated the valueadded trade by EORA global supply chain database to draw the flow of global value chain trade.The following conclusions are drawn according to empirical analysis:1.The global value chain division has a positive impact on international business cycle comovement through empirical analysis by GMM-IV model;2.The impact of value chain division on economic cycle linkage is an inverted U-shaped curve,that is,the degree of bilateral economic cycle comovement increases first and then decreases with the increase of bilateral value chain participation;3.The degree of global value chain division deepens further after the financial crisis,and to a greater extent,it also enhances bilateral output synchronization;4.Vertical integration trade dominates the market between countries with different levels of economic development;5.Either in manufacturing or service industries,the deepening of bilateral value chain trade before and after the financial crisis has a significant positive impact on the linkage of bilateral output,and the impact of both has improved after the financial crisis.For developing country groups,value chain trade in manufacturing industry and service industry both have significantly promoted the bilateral business cycle synchronization;6.In the case of China,value chain trade with developing countries shows a significant positive impact on bilateral business cycle synchronization. |
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