| Real estate investment is an important part of China's fixed assets investment, plays an important role in the national economy, the role of which to stimulate economic growth is no doubt. After the implementation of housing commercialization, real estate investment has been rapidly developed, the impact of which on the economy is becoming more and more obvious. Real estate investment's contribution to national economic growth has become increasingly prominent, the contribution of which in 2014 to GDP is 18.62%. At present, our country is in the key period of economic restructuring, in order to prevent a sharp economic fluctuations, the government work report in 2015 on the real estate industry policy is also from the previous two years of "firm suppression" and "strengthening regulation" to "encourage" and "support" change. Government has also issued a series of policies and measures to encourage investment in real estate, and the CBRC also allows real estate loans appropriate extension, so always tight real loans become loose. Real estate investment volatility have a dual impact on macroeconomic fluctuations, on the one hand, real estate investment volatility can increase macroeconomic fluctuations; on the other hand, the impact of real estate investment volatility on macroeconomic fluctuations is counter-productive, which will weaken macroeconomic fluctuations. How to control the volatility of real estate investment in a reasonable range and the level of financial development has important significance to stabilize the macroeconomic fluctuation.Through the analysis of the development of our country real estate investment and macroeconomic situation, real estate investment's contribution to the macroeconomic and function mechanism, this paper uses the 1998-2013 provincial panel data, and respectively uses panel fixed effect regression model and panel threshold regression model to analyze the relationship between real estate investment volatility and macroeconomic fluctuations in China. The results of the fixed effects regression model show the impact of real estateinvestment volatility on macroeconomic fluctuation is positive, the volatility of real estate investment intensifies macroeconomic fluctuation, the higher the proportion of real estate investment is, the greater the impact on macroeconomic fluctuations.The panel threshold regression model results show that between the volatility in the real estate investment and macroeconomic fluctuation exists dual threshold effect, under different levels of financial development, the effect of fluctuations in the real estate investment on macroeconomic fluctuations is different. When the level of financial development is less than 0.864, the volatility of real estate investment is negative, that is,the volatility of real estate investment can smooth the fluctuation of macro economy. When the level of financial development is between 0.864 and 2.227, real estate investment volatility have a positive impact on the role of macroeconomic fluctuations, which can increase macroeconomic fluctuations. When the level of financial development into a higher area of more than 2.227, the impact of real estate investment volatility on macroeconomic fluctuations is from positive to negative, and real estate investment volatility in macroeconomic fluctuations is very obvious, which can smooth macroeconomic fluctuations. |
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