Based On Gray Markov Chain For Predicting The Tourism Reception Number During The National's Day And Analysis The Influence Factors About Tourism Reception Number

In a globalizing word,tourism industry developed rapidly. With the improvement of people's living standards,people's demand for tourism are growing fast. Tourism will be a strong development industry in the future. During The National's day regional passenger number usually high. After this,a scientific model to forecasting the number of urban passenger will be in need, and it will be provide a effectively basis for making decision.This paper introduced three types of models,Grey model,Weighted Markov model,Grey Markov chain model,then use the three model to predict the number of passengers reception.Grey Markov chain model is basic on Grey model and Weighted Markov model,named combined model.The prediction result we get relatively more accurate.In addition,we also use Gray Correlation to analysis the influence factor of tourism reception number during The National's day.The three types of model have effect of efficient prediction,The forecast object generally have the characteristics of less amount of historical data and instability.Based on the data of test, The tourism reception number of National's day fits the characteristics of Markov Property and gray,so the choice of model is scientific and reasonable.In addition,the analysis the correlation of main factors about the tourism passenger number can intuitively reflect the main factors influencing the reception number change,it provide a guidance and direction for the development of tourism industry.The National's day is the peak of tourism,long holiday provides enough time for worker people.People's higher economic level,provides a material basis for the travel.Through the scrutiny,Three line cities has developed rapidly in the tourism in recent years, in Changsha as an example,The National's day in 2012,the reception number reached a record high,with 7.1936 million people,up25% from a year earlier.Through the number in recent years found the reception number showed a trend of rising.Due to the limited historical data,the author through the reception number of Changsha in 2008-2015 to predict the reception number in year of 2016-2020 during The National's day.And forecast of small errors are obtained.Then analysis the factor of tourism reception number through the method of Grey Correlation Analysis,found national GDP and Changsha GDP,per capita net income of rural resident and urban residents per capita disposable income in Changsha,national disposable income of these indicators to the reception of tourism is higher compared with gray correlation degree.