According To Gray Theories Of The Merchandise Building's Price Predict And Analysis In Wuhan

The real estate industry, as a "barometer of national economy, vane of macroeconomics ", its movement appearance not only influences our country development speed and level of the national economy, relates to the safety of the economy and the finance, and the wealth effect of its creation also has revolutionary consequences for the living level of residents family. Its price is the most important and the most direct reflection, as is a very complicated economic problem because of the variety of building price, and economic , natural and social factors to the real estate development have behind effect influence, these make building price and influence its variety of economy change to measure of the metered relation of can't be described with accurate mathematics, moreover the development history of our country residence real estate particularly is not long opposite to broad, related covariance datas less. Exactly owing to these, this text tries to mainly take gray system theories as foundation, with merchandise building's price datas for statistics object, apply Matlab, Excel and OriginPro softwares, combine real estate economics, statistics, numerical analysis and engineering constructing etc knowledge to carry on substantial evidence analysis. In this text according to usage the OriginPro software drawing Wuhan's tendency chart of residence sale ,and the association diagram of building price and impacting factors, Matlb7.0 software edit and translating gray arithmetic programmeand establishing to correctional model and introducing markov Chains to build up GMM(1,1) model and forecast merchandise building price in Wuhan etc innovations., we get main results:(1)According to 2004-2006 quarter number of degrees according to the GM(1,1)equation and the gray dynamic state square distance time respond to a sequence ofcorrectional GM(1,1) model is(dx¹)/(dt)-0.0370917x¹ =2415.027886 (?)¹(k+1)=67852.435554e^0.0370917k-65109.658737+δ(k-l)225.7361e^{-0.069993(k-1)} thereinto ,the revise model to pass an accuracy examination among them. (2)According to correctional GM(1,1) model and Markov chains model to establish GMM(1,1) model ,we predict merchandise building of all the price 3844.46 dollars and 4002.74 dollars of the front two quarters and opposite to reality relatively get accuracy 99.54% and 98.74%, as the GMM(1,1) model predict of superiority, and apply the GMM(1,1) model hereafter pushes four quarters degree of estimate datas.(3)According to gray model and real estate price theory, taking the Year 2000-2007's datas as statistics object, building up a gray connectional analysis model, we pass a calculation to get in the price factors influence merchandise building and the connection all of the comparisons of building price, and get the GDP showing the most prominent, afterward one by one in order are the all controllable income, the amount of investment, residents' consumption price index number, merchandise building of empty area.