Research On Interaction Between Interest Rate And Real Estate Price

After years of prosperity, the real estate industry as an important part of Chinese national economy is facing great risks and challenges due to the economic crisis, shifting economic growth, national destocking and deleveraging policy. Looking back to the development path of China’s real estate industry, the interest rate tool has become an important tool to control house price and the real estate market. Studying the interaction between changes in interest rate and the real estate price helps to provide policy recommendations for the use of interest rate policy to control real estate market and to maintain the real estate market steady development.Basing on combing the relevant research results at home and abroad,this paper studies the related theory about the relation between the real estate price and interest rate;chooses1996.02-2016.02 interbank lending rates, house price, inflation, exchange rates and other related indicators monthly data to study the interaction between Chinese interest rate and real estate price in empirical analysis, which draws conclusions that:changes of interbank lending rate and real estate price are characteristic of inertia;for the shock of interbank lending rate,real estate price appears weak positive effect, namely interbank lending rate fails to effectively adjust to real estate price;Interbank lending rate shows alternately negative and positive response to house price shock,which means short-term funds have stronger profit-driven.In the long term, changes in lending rates showed a positive response to house price shock.Inflation has the same change to the shock of interbank lending rate;Inflation exists negative response to the real estate price shock,so prices do not have expected function and affect the level of real interest rates.Interbank lending rate shock causes the negative response of exchange rate.In other words,exchange rate goes done(direct quotation) with rising of interbank lending rate,which conforms to the economic theory and China’s specific national conditions.Exchange rate shows a positive response the shock of real estate prices.This paper thinks the state should build the risk monitoring system to react the interaction between rates and interest rate and house price; strengthen to monitor andanalyze of the changes in house price and the supply and demand for real estate market,in order that interest rate adjustments will effectively play a role on the real estate industry,financial credit and risk Control;Adjusting the inflation index in order to make house price play an anticipative role; Strengthening the marketization of interbank lending rate;Perfecting the exchange rate system to enhance interactive exchange rate and house price; Dissolving house price volatility risk.