Analysis On The Characteristics And Influencing Factors Of Garlic Price Fluctuation In Shandong

Shandong province is China's traditional garlic production,processing and export province.The output and exports are among the top in the country.The garlic has been occupied by the domestic market share of more than 70%.Garlic is an important agricultural crop in Shandong.But in recent years,Shandong garlic production,sales and other aspects are facing various opportunities and risks because of frequent fluctuations in the price of garlic.It also has an important impact on the stakeholders,the economy and people's daily consumption.It has a great practical significance to study the price volatility of garlic.The popular garlic was selected as the research object.The main objective of the study is to investigate the characteristics of garlic price fluctuations,and analysis the reasons of garlic prices fluctuations in recent years,for the government to effectively regulate and control the price regulation of garlic from the root of the problem.It also provides some references for garlic growers,investors and processing producers.GARCH-M,EGARCH model was used to make an empirical analysis of garlic price volatility on Shandong Province in 2006 January to 2016 May.The results showed that the garlic price fluctuation has obvious "leptokurtosis,non normal" characteristics and strong volatility persistence;it has significant agglomeration and asymmetric and much more information and the impact of rising prices than price shocks;garlic market has the characteristics of high risk and high return.Through theoretical analysis and empirical analysis on the influencing factors of garlic price fluctuation in Shandong province and the method of principal component regression,of the annual data of supply and demand factors,cost factors and macro factors of garlic price fluctuation in Shandong province in 2003-2015 were empirically analyzed.The results showed that in 2003-2015 years,garlic price fluctuations,F1 played a fundamental role,and F2 played a important role.Planting area,stock and exchange rate were negatively correlated with garlic prices.Affected area,production cost,circulation cost,exports volume,money supply,GDP,CPI and price were positively correlated.The main influencing factors of garlic price fluctuations in Shandong are supply and demand factors and cost factors in 2003-2015.The greatest impact is the planting area and exports volume.For the above conclusions,the following suggestions are put forward to stabilize the price of garlic in Shandong province: First,we can predict garlic price trend,and pay attention to the price drop information.And then reasonable guide market main reason investment;Second,in order to ensure effective supply,we can promote the scale of the production of garlic farming;optimization of germplasm,and improve garlic production;garlic market and the number of cold storage in the province to make a plan to rationally arrange garlic reserves.Third,in order to safeguard the stability of exports,garlic export enterprises should join the association of export enterprises,and actively respond to anti-dumping.Fourth,we can accelerate the mechanization of production to reduce labor costs.And reduce circulation to reduce logistics costs.Fifth,the government should formulate relevant regulations to punish hot money speculation.And monitor key industries,strengthen monitoring information services,timely release of information to increase market transparency.