Research On Credit Risk Assessment For Small And Medium -sized Enterprises Of Commercial Banks

With the rapid development of our economy and the adjustment of economic structure, as the largest and most innovative enterprise group in China, small and medium-sized enterprises need funds to expand their business and transformation and upgrading.At the same time with the enlargement of the foreign bank business scope and the rise of domestic numerous financial institutions, the pressure of the credit business of commercial Banks turn biger, they need expand credit business market to promote competition ability.A large number of small and medium-sized enterprise capital requirements have provided commercial Banks a broad market of credit business. But there are commercial Banks reluctant to lend and the contradiction of small and medium-sized enterprises "loans difficult". An important reason of Commercial bank "lend" for small and medium-sized enterprises is the difficulty of evaluating the credit risk, because the banks can not judgment the credit risk, so they can only give up or reduce the cooperation with small and medium-sized enterprises in order to avoid the loss of money.Due to the bank "lend", small and medium enterprises can not obtain good financial support, its financing difficult problem is long-standing.Banks should establish the credit risk assessment model of small and medium-sized enterprises as soon as possible, perfect the enterprise credit risk evaluation system,to make a judgment in a timely and effective manner, to screen the credit cooperation of small and medium-sized enterprises, to select high quality of small and medium-sized enterprises and achieve "win-win".Corporate credit risk theory is the theoretical guidance of this paper. On the basis of domestic and foreign scholars' research results, this paper puts forward a new idea, It is to build a credit risk assessment model for small and medium enterprises in commercial banks, based on the Logistic regression theory. The credit data between WF bank and small and medium-sized enterprises is the sample of this paper. First of all, this paper analyzes the present situation of the credit risk assessment of SMEs in WF bank, and points out the problems and deficiencies in the assessment. Second, the multi variable set of credit risk (including financial and non-financial) is constructed, taking data from 94 companies as samples (including the normal credit of the credit and credit default of the enterprise). Third, this paper tests and filter 17 financial variables of the collection, and use the principal component analysis method to extract 4 principal component variables. Then 5 non-financial variables in the collection are quantified, and the method of expert grading is used. The above 9 variables are used to construct the Logit regression model, which is a credit risk assessment for small and medium enterprises. Fourth, the regression analysis and the goodness of fit test of the model are established, and the 4 variables and variable coefficients are obtained. SME credit risk assessment model was finalized. Fifth, the validity and reliability of the model are verified by the samples of the test group.The study concluded that:4 variables affect the credit risk of enterprises,, they are the profitability of the enterprise?debt repayment capacity?financial structure and the status of enterprises in the industry. Profitability?debt repayment capacity? the status of enterprises in the industry have a negative impact on corporate credit default, so if the value of them is greater, the probability of corporate credit default will be lower. Financial structure has a positive impact on corporate credit default, so if the proportion of corporate debt or corporate fixed assets accounted for the total assets is greater, the probability of corporate credit default will be higher.The paper puts forward suggestions on how to strengthen the cooperation between commercial banks and small and medium-sized enterprises, and how to guard against Credit default risk.