Demand Forecasting And Development Mode Innovation Of Port Container Logistics For Foreign Trade

With the rapid growth of foreign trade in our country, the ports as a key part in the coastal area economic operation, it is the key point that how to better develop the foreign container trade business, to be solved urgently. It is good for port to sustainable and healthy development if the demand forecast of contain logistics is very accurate and the development planning based on the demand is reasonable.The paper is based on the research at home and abroad, and we clarify the trade of port container logistics. We find three model methods(GM(1, 1), Multivariable Liner Regression, BP Neural Network) after we summarize the existing forecast methods and analyze the advantage and disadvantages of the methods. We construct a combined forecasting model by using the three models. Then, we summarize the port development model of foreign trade container and show the typical cases of each model. In order to put forward the port container to foreign trade logistics innovation development model, we analyze the successful experience of typical cases. At last, we vertify the model based on Yingkou Port. We predict the demand in Yingkou Port in the next five years, and give the suggestions of Yingkou Port's future model for the development of innovation.The combined forecasting model which provides a new idea for port logistics forecasting has a higher precision than single prediction model when we forecast the demand of port foreign container logistics. And development of innovation model has pointed out the direction for port adapt to the new station.