Research On Demand Forecast And Network Layout Of Cold Chain Logistics Of Agricultural Products In Nanjing Metropolitan Area

With the progress of the times,people’s living standards have improved significantly.The demand for fresh agricultural products such as fruits,vegetables,eggs,meat and aquatic products is also growing.Therefore,the cold chain logistics of agricultural products is directly related to the rural economy and the quality of life of urban residents in a region.Through the analysis of the demand for cold chain logistics of agricultural products in Nanjing Metropolitan Area,the establishment of cold chain logistics network can not only comprehensively improve the operation efficiency of cold chain logistics in the region,but also adapt to the needs of the market,thus increasing the income of farmers.The development of cold chain logistics network of agricultural products in Nanjing Metropolitan Area can also benefit the surrounding Jiangsu The construction of cold chain logistics network in other cities in Anhui and other provinces has played an exemplary role and is of great significance to accelerate the construction of cold chain logistics network for agricultural products in East China.The research in this paper is based on the first metropolitan area approved by the state-Nanjing Metropolitan Area.First,the cold chain logistics transportation volume of agricultural products related to cold chain logistics in Nanjing Metropolitan Area is accurately defined,and then the actual transportation volume of cold chain logistics of agricultural products is calculated through the collected data of agricultural products.Then,a prediction model with qualified accuracy is established to predict the cold chain logistics demand of agricultural products in Nanjing Metropolitan Area,Finally,the forecasting quantity of cold chain logistics demand of agricultural products in metropolitan area is included in the comprehensive evaluation index of cold chain logistics capacity of cities in the area,and the spatial layout of cold chain logistics network of agricultural products in metropolitan area is constructed based on RSR method.The research results show that:1.The factors that affect the demand for cold chain logistics of agricultural products in Nanjing metropolitan area include politics,economy,society and technology.2.The demand for cold chain logistics of agricultural products in Nanjing metropolitan area is predicted by using the exponential smoothing prediction model and GM(1,1)grey prediction model in the single prediction method and the combined prediction model based on Shapley value in the combined prediction method.The forecast results show that the demand for cold chain logistics of agricultural products in Nanjing,Xuancheng and Chuzhou in the metropolitan area will be relatively stable in the future from 2021 to 2025,and the demand for cold chain logistics of agricultural products in other cities will increase by different extents.3.The cold chain logistics network of agricultural products in the Nanjing metropolitan area is constructed based on the rank sum ratio method.Finally,Nanjing and Zhenjiang are selected as the core logistics parks in the logistics planning,Yangzhou,Huai’an,Wuhu,Ma’anshan and Chuzhou are selected as the logistics centers in the logistics planning,and Xuancheng is selected as the distribution centers in the logistics planning.