Research On The Effect Of Shadow Banking On The Stability Of Commercial Banking In China

Shadow banking is the replication of commercial bank credit functions,but it is a financial institution or business that is not regulated or regulated.The development of shadow banking in China is not yet mature.The main business model is attached to the development of commercial banks.The degree of securitization is low and the leverage ratio is low.The main business models are wealth management products,entrusted loans,and trust loans,along with financial innovation.With the continuous deepening,shadow banking has gradually become an important financing channel in addition to bank credit.The development of shadow banking has on the one hand promoted the innovation of commercial banks and increased the profitability of commercial banks.On the other hand,the shadow banking business is not strictly regulated and leads to business.Blind expansion,coupled with the maturity mismatch risk and liquidity risk of shadow banking,evaded financial supervision and increased the market liquidity in China,weakening the central bank's control over monetary policy.Moreover,most shadow banking business models have commercial banks involved.Once the capital chain breaks,the risks that it triggers will eventually be transferred to commercial banks,which will increase the pressure on commercial banks' risk management and affect the stability of China's banking system.Therefore,studying the shadow banking's influence mechanism on the stability of China's commercial banks will be of great significance to the stability and development of China's commercial banks.Organize and summarize relevant domestic and foreign literature on shadow banking,analyze the definition,characteristics and development status of shadow banking,and measure the composition and scale of shadow banking in China.Using a combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis,we selected the time series data for 2006-2016 and calculated the total shadow banking scale based on the central bank's annual report and financial product market reports.The banking system specifically selected 14 commercial banks listed on China's A-shares,including four state-owned banks,four joint-stock banks,and four city commercial banks.The index mapping interval scoring method and the International Monetary Fund's financial stability index were established.From the three levels of macroeconomics,policy control,and bank operating capabilities,select a number of indicators to measure the stability of commercial banks.The stability indicators of the 12 listed commercial banks were selected as explanatory variables,and four different variables of the shadow banking wealth management product growth rate,entrusted loan growth rate,undiscounted loan growth rate,and trust loan growth rate were selected as explanatory variables to establish an error correction model.Study the impact of the four variables of shadow banking in China on the stability of commercial banks,and empirically derived financial products,undiscounted acceptance bills and trust loans have a positive impact on the stability of commercial banks.Entrusted loans have a negative effect on the stability of commercial banks.Impact,and greater impact than other variables.According to empirical analysis,corresponding policy recommendations are proposed.