Land Use Spatial-temporal Change And Simulation In Shuangyashan City

As the direct reflection of using regional land resource, the interaction and interdependent elements of LUCC(Land Use/Cover Change) form a spatio-temporal system through the exchange of energy, material and information. The dynamic change research of LUCC is the core and difficulty in global and regional environmental change and sustainable development. LUCC is quite a complex process, a study on simulation of LUCC in different time and space scales is helpful to reveal the changes of the ecological environment, mechanism, et c. under the influence of human’s society activities. It provides scientific and rational management of land use and regional development strategies. Mineral resources cities are special regularity and typicality, the vulnerability of ecological environment and the mining resource distribution pattern are restrict the development of mineral resources cities. There are significant differences in the areas of development model of natural environment, social economy etc.. Especially, mineral cities are different from general urban in land use change and the evolution process areas.It is valuable for mining cities’ pattern in spatial and temporal change of land use and simulation studies.As a small regional scale of land use change model, CLUE-S model which is one of small regional scale of land use change models can solve the puzzle from utilizing land resource in the small regional scale situation in the future. In this paper, a typical mining city Shuangyashan municipal district area as the research object, by 1995, 2005 and 2014 as the time point, the data of land use based on phase 3, the integrated application of remote sensing and geographic information system technology, the system analyzes the processes and characteristics of land use change in the study area at historical time point, on the basis of using the CLUE-S model to forecast the processes of land use change under different scenarios and spatial pattern of distribution in the future. The dissertation provides service for local land order to serve the planning of the local land use. The main research contents and conclusions of the paper are as follows:(1) The 1995s-2005 s land use change intensity is stronger after time section. 1995s-2005 s, give priority to with garden land and cultivated land ch ange, land use change is more intense which mainly around to arable land and gardens. 2005s-2014 s, the cultivated land is one of the largest land area during the variation types, the increase of arable land is mainly from garden area, but the area is greatly reduced; two time section map information differences before and after 1995s-2005 s transfer area significantly greater than 2005s-2014 s time section, but less than the after time section types of transformation. In these two time sections, the various l and use types which use dynamic degree are greatly different, dynamic difference to be markedly, and the former time segment is much higher than the after dynamic time segment; 1995s-2005 s, the northeastsouthwest(blue line) presents span larger "U" glyph concave curve, in the northwest- southeast direction(green line) ladder shaped smooth transition fitting. In 2005s-2014 s extents, the direction of northwest-southeast(blue line) declines slowly firstly, then increase sharply. Northeast-southwest(green line) presents span larger inverted "U" glyph convex curve.(2) Using binary Logistic regression method, the study of regional distribution around the change of the factor analysis, the results show that selected 10 explain factors can well explain the change of land use in the study area, the cultivated land mainly with mining staff ratio, distance from population centers and other related factors, garden land and waters land mainly related to the elevation gradient factor conditions, slope factor beta is 0.16523, main construction land scale, slope and away from residential areas and mining practitioners distance relevance are strong, and for industrial and mining land and its main driving factors include the influence of the mining area per capita, distance from mining area and the distance from the trunk roads.(3) Based on different years of land use spatial distribution pattern of land use data to simulate the same years, which simulated land use data of 2014 land use spatial distribution pattern in 1995 and 2005 respectively and achieved good results. In the year of 2005 of simulation in 2014 and the year of 1995 of simulation in 2014, the overall accuracy reach 88.15% and 88.15% respectively, on the basis of research results, simulated target is set i n 2025. Research results show that the CLUE-S model in Shuangyashan area has a good simulation of land use, the model in the simulation study of land use in the study area has good applicability.(4) Refer to Shuangyashan development plan in the future, th e paper builds the next 11 years(2014-2025) in four types of land use change, and forecasts the future land use spatial distribution pattern of four different situations which we made. According to the results of each scenario simulation results of land use, the difference to be markedly, Under the trend of development, arable land and other land area continue to less whereas construction land increase to maximum. With cultivated land protection scenario, cultivated land still keep dropping, but significa ntly lower speed than before, the expansion of construction land and industrial and mining land trend are curbed. In economic development situation, the construction land area of a marked increase in the growth rate can be seen which encroach on a great number of surrounding farmland and garden, while the growth of mining area becomes biggest. In ecological protection scenario, cultivated land, other industrial land and mining land use area with different degree of decline, meanwhile, the area of garden land and waters land are increase significantly.Research results in the paper can provide reference for local planning and land resources protection.