Analysis Of The Influence Of An Hui Province Step Tariff On Electricity Demand Of Residents And The Effect Of Energy Saving

With the rapid development of China's economy,energy shortage is in increasingly grim situation,in order to promote the effective allocation of resources,accelerate China's construction of a resource-saving and environment-friendly society in the process,the Commission proposes “step tariff” policy in July 1,2012 in 29 provinces,city,autonomous areas.In order to promote the rational allocation and utilization the resources,the price ladder system divides users average monthly electricity consumption to a number of steps or calculate the cost of sub grade pricing reform.The price ladder mainly consider the affordability of the residents,to ensure low The basic demand for electricity income groups,and form a certain binding for high income groups with excessive waste of electricity.The academic circles on the price ladder system whether achieve two goals of efficiency and fairness or not is on the debate,especially whether they really play the effect of energy saving or not has become a hot topic in academic circles in recent years dispute.Therefore,whether it is from the level of academic research value,practical significance of energy saving,the price ladder research and really whether it achieve the effect of saving energy or not is of great significance for residents affected by electricity demand.This paper first introduces the current use of power resources in China.The research discusses the price ladder for the importance of energy conservation,and then to measure the total electricity consumption and residential electricity consumption as the energy saving effect,the status of 2004-2014 and its total power consumption growth rate in Anhui province were analyzed.According to the present situation of energy saving effect of the price ladder.This paper analyzes the influence mechanism of the price ladder to the residents with electricity demand change from two aspects:one is the price ladder to the residents to pricing rights,to encourage residents to reduce consumption,reduce the price level:two is the price ladder residents have prompted the reasonable plan score in different quarters.Based on the literature review,this paper summarized the influence of five main factors:the consumption of residents per disposable income,population quantity,electricity prices,gas penetration rate,substitution of goods prices.By using the econometric method,the establishment of residential electricity consumption demand regression model,the 16 areas of Anhui province 2010-2014 year resident consumptionpanel data unit root test,cointegration analysis of stationary test,on the basis of empirical research on the panel data,the electricity demand model for residents.Based on the theoretical model,we first determine whether the price ladder can achieve energy-saving effect or not,then calculate the numerical value on the energy saving effect of the price ladder.In the judgment of Anhui province ladder energy saving effect,firstly we use residential electricity amount of time series data of1998-2012 Hefei city to build residential electricity demand model to forecast residential electricity amount in 2013 and 2014.Comparing The prediction results with the actual residents after the implementation of the price ladder consumption comparison,comparison results shows that the uniform price residents in 2013 electricity consumption forecasting value are higher than the implementation of the ladder.In order to further determine the size of the energy saving effect,we calculate the effect of the price ladder energy of the 16 regions of Anhui province.The energy saving effect measurement principle is based on the theory of price elasticity of demand,we use the random survey data of Hefei City,200 household electricity in Anhui Province,Hefei city residents with electricity in the normal distribution test using statistical methods,statistical test results and the distribution of normal distribution fitting.The calculation results show that the 16 areas of Anhui province stepped pri policies to curb the growth of power consumption of the residents in a certain extent reached To the energy saving effect,and from different areas of energy efficiency measure,the energy saving effect does not save the regional differences,and gives the relevant explanation.In view of above research conclusion,this paper finally gives the Anhui province step tariff policy suggestions,so as to achieve under the premise of ensuring social fairness,achieve maximum energy-saving effect,achieve the unity of efficiency and fairness.