| With the rapid development of economy and society,financial industry has become an important part of the process.While bank industry occupies a significant status,the safety of bank system decide the health and stability of financial system.In the unprecedented subprime crisis in 2007 starring from the US market,every subsector in financial industry was drained out liquidity.Therefore,we can conclude a result that bank industry hides a huge risk.Since the 21 st century,the shadow banking developed as rapid as the bank industry.In 2013,the academy of social science of China issued Chinese financial supervision report,summarizing the scale of shadow banking in two aspects of official statistics and market data.The scale of shadow banking reached 20.5 trillion RMB,which accounted for 40% of GDP or 16% of whole assets of bank system.Therefore,with the gradual expansion of the shadow banking,the risk caused by it should not be ignored when meets systemic risk.In this paper,we conclude from abundant materials and data that we should introduce a complex network to analyze the risk communication effect in interbank lending market.In this network,nodes represent banks and lines between different nodes represent the lending relationship.Most scholars reach a conclusion after having a lot of work in complex network that interbank lending network is a scale-free network;in other words,very few banks have relationship with other banks which are called Hub nodes.There are few scholars put the spread of risk from shadow banking on complex networks.To simulate and analyze shadow banking risk transmission,we apply the complex network onto the shadow banking.The small-world network is accepted by some scholars as a proper method for analyzing shadow banking network,since every shadow banking has a communication with others around it.It is known to us that bank and shadow banking have many links.In addition,the scale of shadow banking is gradually increase.Therefore,we innovatively combine the bank network and shadow banking network to simulate and analyze the impact from shadow banking to bank system.Firstly,this paper introduces the definition and channels of risk transmission,the characteristics and channels of shadow banking risk transmission,and some complex networks related to bank and shadow banking.Secondly,we build complex networks of bank and shadow banking and simplified balance sheet of bank and shadow banking.Thirdly,we develop our scale-free network and mall-world model which are previously built using different parameters(power-law index of interbank network,liquidity assets proportion,interbank assets proportion and owner's equity ratio;average degree of shadow banking network,liquidity assets proportion,interbank assets proportion and owner's equity ratio;links between two networks,shadow banking total assets accounted for the proportion of the total bank's assets,shadow banking total assets from the proportion of the total bank's assets)to simulate the effect of bank system and shadow banking system suffering from single impact and systemic impact.After simulation and analysis,we get following conclusions:Firstly,in the situation of single impact,the smaller power-law index of interbank network,the stronger the bank's anti-risk capability is.While in the situation of systemic impact,the bigger power-law index of interbank network,the stronger the bank's anti-risk capability is.The smaller interbank assets proportion or the bigger owner's equity ratio,the stronger the bank's anti-risk capability is whether under the single impact or the systemic impact.Secondly,the bigger average degree of shadow banking network,the smaller interbank assets proportion or the bigger owner's equity ratio,the stronger the anti-risk capability of shadow banking is whether under the single impact or the systemic impact.Thirdly,the bigger the number of links between two networks,the ratio of asset size or the source of asset,the stronger of the impact from shadow banking after suffering from systemic impact is. |
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