The Impacts Of Analysts' Forecast And Relative Performance Of Peers On The CEO Turnover In SOEs

What incentives can encourage managers to maximize enterprise value as the goal has always been an important topic in the field of corporate governance.In implicit contract leading state-owned enterprises,the absence of property rights,market managers and unsound executive compensation objective heavily regulated environment,CEO position change mechanism associated with the performance becomes the most important incentives.For existing Top Management Factors Affecting Multi focused on corporate governance factors,executives own characteristics and business situation,few scholars are concerned about the role of the Chinese context of the performance expectations of the capital market executive changes.From the documents relating to the assessment of state-owned enterprises or executives in recent years,published,we found that state-owned enterprises has been formed based on the relative performance of the normative assessment of executives incentive contract,and existing on business performance and high compared tube change research findings,status of state-owned enterprises in our country more in line with the performance evaluation of the relative performance evaluation theory point of view.In view of this,we use from 2003 to 2012.A state-owned shares of listed companies non-financial executives change data to Securities analyst forecast error as a proxy variable capital market performance expectations,examining Securities analyst forecast error for executives of state-owned enterprises the impact of change,respectively,to China to investigate the state executive promotion,transfer and demotion flat affect change.Study results show that analysts are forecasting errors on our SOE executives Flat and demoted to have a significant negative impact that analysts predict greater the error value(corporate performance than analysts forecast performance more),state executive probability demoted peaceful transfer smaller;analysts prediction error value is smaller(enterprise performance lower than analysts forecast more performance),the greater the probability of state executive demoted peaceful tone.Additionally,this article based on the relative performance evaluation theory in a peer-relative performance of state executive changes in the role,and the results prove that the lower relative performance compared to peers,higher performance relative to peers,senior securities analyst drop negative correlation between the level of the stronger,and this regulation change in direction for the executive is not significant when adjusted for promotion of peace.First of the innovation in the paper,this paper for the first time explore the impact of changes relative performance evaluation of executives at state-owned enterprises situation,to make up for deficiencies in the existing research evaluation of executives selected performance indicators,and research related to executive changes It provides a new perspective more in line with Chinese context.Secondly,there is not yet the role of scholars in the performance expectations of securities analysts in executive changes,the paper examines its regulation of executive changes and the performance of the external oversight from the perspective of an innovative way,thinking "invisible hand" in state-owned enterprises may be a useful complement to the existing literature.Finally,due to the domestic and foreign scholars to explore state-owned enterprise executives change is still in its infancy,for reference and foreign literature is more limited,the paper still has the following disadvantages:First,this article does not not significant findings were deeper statistical inquiry,made possible only stay in the theoretical explanation based on the existing literature.Second,when measuring executive political relations,this article representatives of the NPC or CPPCC as a standard,simply by way of dummy variables were measured,without distinction between the political relations of different nature,which is the future worth of content to explore.Third,in terms of perspective,this paper examines the factors affecting the state executive positions change from the perspective of the external market environment,as mentioned above,internal corporate state executive face features and the external market environment will change its impact mechanism of action,perhaps from the perspective of comprehensive survey of executives outlook changes,able to draw conclusions worthy.