Empirical Research On The Influencing Factors Of Mortgage Prepayments In Our Country

In recent years,with the rapid development of China real estate and the reform process of housing system,China's housing mortgage loans has been rapid developed.At the same time,as a highlight of the new international financial innovation,mortgage-backed securities(MBS)is a starting point to further deepen the development of housing finance.In MBS issuance process,reasonably determining the mortgage value as its underlying assets is always one of the core issues.The default risk brought by borrower's prepayment behavior directly affects the cash flow of the asset pool.Accurately predicting prepayment is the key to reasonable pricing,Therefore,Strengthen the study of risk of mortgage prepayment has become imperative.This paper is to have a study on the factors that affect our mortgage prepayment by the method of empirical research.Firstly,this paper introduces the related theory of the influencing factors of mortgage prepayments,including the influencing factors ? the introduction of related models and the risk of prepayment.Subsequently,this paper sorts out and analyzes the collected sample data of 2000 parts of a commercial bank mortgage and introduces quantitative analysis.Through factor analysis,discriminant analysis and other multivariate statistical methods to find the main factors affecting the prepayment.After the study,we found that the influencing factors of mortgage prepayments includes interest rate factor?mortgage term ratio factor?prepayment amount factor?borrower gender factor?borrower economic situation factor?age factor and marriage factor.Finally,we uses the collected data by discriminant analysis and logistic regression model to have empirical analysis of the above factors.And the results calculated by the software,constructing a statistical model to predict the prepayment risk is very effective..The empirical results of this paper show that constructing a statistical model and chosing the appropriate explanatory variables not only can be used to predict prepayment risk,and we can grasp the contribution of each explanatory variable to the risk of prepayment according to the coefficient of the model.It can provide a reference for the subsequent choice of implementation of the mortgage-backed securities asset pool.Finally,this paper presents some preventive recommendations about the prepayment risk of mortgage-backed securities,and expects to effectively promote the further development of housing finance.