Analysis On Potential Economic Impact Of “One Belt One Road” On The Region Along

A entirely new pattern of China's opening up has been created by the Initiative of "One Belt One Road",including two critical aspects---Unimpeded trade and facilities connectivity.The step in negotiation for collaboration during One Belt One Road Initiative has been accelerating as well.On top of that,there are lots of infrastructure construction program undergoing in full plumage.Tremendous potential from related countries will be discovered in the near future.In order to explore the expected economic effect on regions along from "One Belt One Road",this paper takes the six regions along the line as the main analysis object,uses GTAP to carry on the quantitative analysis then fro m macro-micro view respectively to estimate various influence on residents' welfare,trade condition,real GDP growth rate,Trade,output level and dynamic economic effect of the six aspects of the strategy to explain the expected economic effects.The results show that:(1)"One Belt One Road" will bring different degrees of economic growth and welfare effects to the region along and the biggest beneficial is the Mongolian-Russian region,the largest real GDP growth will appear in Southeast Asia;(2)Through tariff reduction and strengthening infrastructure construction,economic and trade cooperation in the region along will be significantly improved.Western Asia,Mongolia,Russia,Central Asia will undergo profound changes in the industrial structure,the main trade terms of the region will be improved;(3)The implementation of different industries will have Complex effects,China's textile and apparel products industry will benefit the most,however non-metallic products and other industries will suffer a certain loss.Domestic governments,enterprises and society should guide the industries that may suffer losses to adapt to the more open international environment and lead the domestic capital to the countries with potential investment value in Central and Eastern Europe in the short term.The expansion of FTA strategy should follow the "tailored" principle,to ensure that the outcome of negotiation welfare benefits of the negotiation parties.