The Construction And Economic Effects Evaluation Of "The Belt And Road FTA Network"

As an economic and trade cooperation initiative,the "Belt and Road" aims to build a high-standard free trade zone network based on China’s neighbors,radiating the "Belt and Road" and eventually facing the world.Based on the network construction perspective of the “Belt and Road Free Trade Area Network”,this paper studies its construction ideas,paths,and models,using the GTAP model to analyze its economic and trade impact on China and its sub-regions along the route.In the network construction section,the article first sorted out the current status of free trade in the sub-regions along the “Belt and Road” and the differences in trade integration conditions such as political stability,institutional culture,infrastructure,product trade structure,and trade and investment environment,and clarified the sub-region’s cooperation model and core countries,and then sorted out the construction ideas of the “Belt and Road Free Trade Area Network”.Secondly,the principal component analysis method was used to calculate the comprehensive score of the trade integration conditions of the countries in each subregion.And combined with the “core countries”,the order of integration within the sub-regions is determined to determine the construction path of the “Belt and Road Free Trade Area Network”.The path is: based on the sub-region,taking the core countries or regional organizations in each sub-region as a breakthrough,from point to line,from line to area,to achieve regional integration first;combining short,medium and long-term tasks in each phase,focusing on breakthrough,multi-layer concurrency,and step-by-step advancement to gradually promote cross-regional integration;along the "bilateral-plurilateral-regional" path,running through the "Belt and Road",a multi-level,wide-area,wide-cover,high-quality of the “Belt and Road Free Trade Area Network” led by China will be built.In the part of economic effect evaluation,nine scenarios with different orders and degrees of trade integration were set based on different gradient values of transportation cost,tariff and non-tariff barriers,and the GTAP model was used to simulate the impact of the“Belt and Road Free Trade Area Network” on thedevelopment of sub-regions and industries in various countries.The results showed that:(1)Overall,that is,relying on infrastructure cooperation to improve the level of transportation facilitation and reduce transportation costs,while at the same time based on production cooperation and service trade to improve the trade liberalization and facilitation,and jointly promoting the establishment of the “Belt and Road Free Trade Area Network” will have a significant positive impact on the GDP,social welfare,and terms of trade of countries in the subregions along the route;(2)From the perspective of the economic effects of different trade integration orders,the higher degree of integration in a subregion,the greater positive effect of the promotion of the “Belt and Road Free Trade Area Network” on real GDP and social welfare in the region.The lower level of initial integration of sub-regional economic and trade will be damaged,and this negative impact is difficult to reduce in the short term;(3)For China,infrastructure cooperation,production cooperation,and service trade continue to promote the “Belt and Road Free Trade Area Network”,all of which have a significant role in promoting GDP,welfare levels,terms of trade,and import and export,and can achieve industrial transformation and upgrading through capacity cooperation.However,different trade integration orders have different impacts on China in various aspects;(4)From an industrial perspective,the completion of the “Belt and Road Free Trade Zone Network” will promote the development of comparative advantage industries in China and subregions along the route.The economies of scale of the dominant industries in in each sub-region are significant,especially in countries with primary product resources.