The Development Model And Path Selection Of Low Carbonization In Shandong Province Under Different Scenarios

Human society witnessed their victory in overcoming the nature, meanwhile,they are also facing the unprecedented challenges from the environment- climate change. For the problem of global warming, this is an irreversible, persistent crisis, it is not only directly or indirectly against the natural ecological environment system from all directions in varying degrees. The property of life on which human beings survive and the social and even spiritual basis of culture would face a direct or potential threat. Our greenhouse gas emissions are now beyond the United States, ranking first in the world, and facing severe situation on the reductions, and Shandong Province as the country’s important energy base, affected their own natural resources, the carbon emissions are high, the energy mix high carbonation significantly. Lower carbonation road is an important strategic choice for sustainable development in Shandong Province, but also are effective way to accelerate the transformation of development, implement the 13 th five year plan requirements to promote the development of low-carbon cycle, advance energy revolution, accelerate energy technology innovation, build a clean low-carbon, efficient modern energy security system in the normal context of the new economy.The main contents of this paper are as follows:The first part is an introduction of the progress of research background, significance, research status and research methods from a global perspective, the macro level and the micro level.The second part is the theoretical basis, mainly introduces the relevant carbon theory research related to this paper, analysis the important impact of climate change issues through climate change theory, then introduced low-carbon economy and circular economy theory and their relationships,, finally introduce the regional development strategy theory, environmental Kuznets curve analysis and decoupling theory.The third part is the quantitative analysis in Shandong Province carbon development. The province carbon emissions, carbon intensity of energy consumptionand carbon emissions data structures were calculated and analyzed, introduced the current situation and the overall development of low-carbon problems in Shandong Province, and then analyzes the institutional environment situation in Shandon, mainly from energy conservation policy and fiscal policy of the financial policy aspects.The fourth part is the core part of this article, the research provided three scenarios: the natural type, weak constraint, strong constraint. By setting parameter index from four aspects of population, GDP per capita, energy intensity, energy mix, this paper has forecasted carbon emissions from 2015 to 2030 in Shandong Province, and has carried on the data analysis to the scenario forecast outcome. The results showed that under the future development of three models, the total amount of natural type of carbon emission scenarios has continued to rise, the total amount of carbon emissions still continues to grow at the scene of the weak constraint, but before 2030 will reach the peak, the total amount of carbon emissions under strong constraint scenario earliest has the peak time and lowest peak.The fifth part describes the model selection to take a different path to low-carbon development in Shandong. By comparison of development priorities of the three models, the focus of development is to speed up economic restructuring and development, raise awareness of low-carbon development in the natural type mode; weak constraint model development focusing on two-way combination of government and market, government traction, market-determined, reasonable adjustment of industrial structure; strong constraint model is to development the nuclear energy alternative technologies, and build a low-carbon society as a whole system in the more mature market mechanism and policy system is basically sound condition. In Shandong Province, it is necessary to ensure the healthy development of regional economy and also to ensure the stability of the framework to achieve the objective requirements of national emission reduction requirements, therefor the weak constraint model is the most viable low-carbon development model to Shandong Province in current.In the last part, the inadequacies of the paper are summarized, and this paper has look forward the next low-carbon job to do prospects in Shandong Province.This paper has predicted Shandong carbon emissions and intensity in the different situations, and the selections were analyzed in different development model. Innovations in this paper are:(1) through scenario analysis simulation this paper predict the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions and carbon emission intensity in the future of Shandong Province, compared and analyzed the peak time and peak volume under different parameter settings, provides data support in the low-carbon development in Shandong Province horizontal assessment.(2) domestic research more concentrated in low-carbon level of theoretical discussion, and are put forward relevant policy recommendations from the national macro point of view, lack of targeted premise. By analyzing the different scenarios carbon emissions of Shandong Province,it is proposed the corresponding energy saving and emission reduction path.