Research On Predictive Government Construction Based On Social Simulation Theory And Method

Along with the rapid development of the society,the concept of "predictive government" emerged.Simulation,a kind of virtual practice method,is a very important method in constructing "predictive government".Computer simulation is the main tool of modern virtual practice,which can simulate the changes of social trends,human social behavior and its changing process by using the calculation function of computer.Through the research on the use of simulation method in foreseeing government administration in ancient China,this paper traces the history of this method and foreseeing government management,and explores the role different simulation methods played in the foreseeing administration of the government in different historical periods.Besides,based on the simulation method of system dynamics,the author studied how to carry out predictive government of the modern government.Taking the traffic policy of Tianjin city as an example and using the Vensim software,this paper analyzes the causal relationship and the feedback loop within the system and between different systems,establishes systematic flow diagram and structural equations and examines relevant parameters.And by adjusting the changes of multiple policy variables,including investment policy,traffic restrictions policy,charging policy and so on,studying the relationship between these variables and making an analytical model,this paper made some predictions on the traffic condition of Tianjin city in the future and put forward some suggestions on the predictive management in traffic field.The rapid social development prompts people to put more emphasis on the use of science and technology in social governance.And if the social simulation theory and method can be used in the field of national governance,especially in the process of policy formulation,it will be of great significance to the predictive management of the government,and then to the economic and social development and administrative system reform in the future.