A Study On The Interaction And Spatial Correlation Between Population Mobility And Housing Prices In Different Regions Of My Country

Today when housing prices remain high,with the gradual expansion of China's population flow scale,the housing problem of the floating population has drawn close attention from all walks of life.The existing literature shows that there is a two-way influence between housing price fluctuation and population flow,and the housing market is spatially correlated to a certain extent.However,most of the relevant domestic studies remain in the cross-section data or time series data,and panel data have only begun to receive attention in recent years.In the existing studies on panel data,few scholars have explored the interactive relationship between population flow and housing price in different regions and the role of population flow in the spatial effect of house prices.B ased on the panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2000 to 2019,this paper explores the two-way interaction between population flow and residential and commercial housing prices in different regions of China and the role of population flow in the spatial effect of house prices.It is expected to provide theoretical basis and reference for the reasonable flow of regional population and the stable development of real estate market.First of all,this paper analyzes the interaction between population flow and real estate market in China from the theoretical level,and carries out descriptive statistical analysis on the current situation of population flow and housing price fluctuation in China's overall and local regions respectively.The results show that the overall housing price and population flow in China have great spatial and temporal variations,and there are great differences between housing price and population flow in different regions.Therefore,it is speculated that the regional differences of population flow may bring agglomeration effect and affect the housing price.Secondly,in order to explore the interaction mechanism between housing prices and population flows in different regions of China,a Panel Vector Autoregressive(PVAR)model was established,and non-spatial econometric methods such as Impulse Response Analysis and Variance Decomposition were used for empirical study.As it turns out,there is a two-way interaction between population flow and housing price in China in the long term,and there is a significant difference in the interaction between population flow and housing price in the three regions.The housing price in the eastern and western regions has a negative effect on population flow gradually in the short term,but in the long term,the negative effect gradually weakens.The negative effect in the eastern region is longer than that in the western region,but it is not obvious in the central region.There is a short-term positive effect of population flow on housing price in the eastern region,but there is a great difference between the central and western regions.Then,the spatial factors are included into the research scope,and the spatial econometric method is used to explore the spatial correlation of residential commercial housing prices at the provincial level in China,and to investigate the role of population flow in the spatial effect of housing prices.The empirical results show that the inter-provincial housing prices in China are spatially correlated and the patterns of spatial correlation are different in different regions;The population flow in this province has a positive effect on the housing price,and the population flow in neighboring provinces also has a positive effect on the housing price.As it turns out,the population flow will not only lead to the increase of housing prices in the region(direct effect),but also promote the increase of housing prices in neighboring provinces(indirect effect).In turn,the housing prices in the neighboring areas will give a feedback effect to the housing prices in the region,which is often overlooked.In the end,the paper makes a summary of the whole paper and gives corresponding suggestions.At the same time,it compares the two methods of non-spatial measurement and spatial measurement.The conclusion is that the two approaches explore the influence on the research object from different perspectives.However,since the housing price in a region does not exist independently in reality,therefore,the spatial correlation between housing prices in different regions should not be ignored when studying practical problems.