Study On The Influence Of Population Aging On Housing Price In Henan Province Based On The Panel Threshold Model

In recent years,the degree of population aging in our country has been deepening,which will put a huge pressure on our economy,and the real estate industry,which is the pillar of my country’s economic industry,will inevitably be affected by the aging of population.Under the unique national conditions of our country,what is the impact of population aging on housing prices and how will it develop in the future is thought-provoking.In recent years,as a province with a large population,the degree of population aging is also relatively serious.At this time,it is helpful to understand the relationship between the degree of population aging and the housing price in Henan Province to maintain the stability of the housing price in Henan province and promote the economic development of Henan province.First of all,on the basis of previous literatures,this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of aging population on housing prices by combining the specific conditions of our country,so as to provide theoretical basis for subsequent empirical study.Then,this paper makes a descriptive statistical analysis of the degree of population aging and the current situation of housing prices in Henan Province,and preliminarily draws the conclusion that the degree of population aging in Henan Province is rising year by year,the growth rate of housing prices first rises and then slows down,and housing prices in some areas are declining due to the epidemic.Then,the panel data of each city in Henan Province from 2006 to 2021 is used to explore the degree of population aging and housing price in Henan Province.First,a panel fixed effect model was established from the perspective of the whole province to analyze the overall relationship between population aging and housing price.The conclusion is that there is a weak positive correlation between population aging and housing price.This is because there is an intergenerational transfer of wealth among families in Henan Province,and the middle-aged and elderly people of the previous generation are willing to invest to buy a house for their children.So the savings of the middle-aged and the elderly have become an invisible driver of rising house prices.Then the panel threshold regression model is established from three different perspectives to analyze the relationship between population aging and housing price.In the analysis of the influence of aging on housing price under regional economic differences,the conclusion is that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between population aging and housing price in Henan Province,that is,when GDP is low,the deepening of population aging will lead to the rise of housing price,but when GDP is high,the deepening of population aging will lead to the decline of housing price to a certain extent.When analyzing how aging influences housing price under the aging difference,the conclusion is drawn that the positive influence on housing price will gradually fade with the aggravation of aging population,which is also consistent with the theoretical mechanism of housing reform dividend and demographic dividend gradually fading.In the analysis of how aging affects the adjustment effect of interest rate on housing price,the conclusion is that the adjustment effect of interest rate on housing price will become more obvious with the aggravation of aging population.Finally,this paper puts forward corresponding suggestions based on the above research conclusions,in order to weaken the adverse impact of the further deepening of the aging population on the housing price in Henan province and promote the healthy development of the real estate economy in Henan province.