Short-term Prediction Of The Natural Rubber Price Based On The Perspective Of Supply Security

As the largest country of natural rubber consumption in the world,self-sufficiency rate of less than 20%.While the price of natural rubber continued to fluctuate in recent years,even the price is below the cost of production.This lead rubber farmers’ enthusiasm to be affected.At the same time,the natural rubber supply security of China is affected.Therefore,to grasp the future direction of China’s natural rubber prices,can help the government,relevant departments and rubber farmers respond to price changes timely,which has practical significance to guarantee the supply security of natural rubber in China.This article is based on Time series model,and build the ARIMA model,then predict the natural rubber price trend in our country,meanwhile analyzes the factors that can affect the price of natural rubber in China.In this paper,the overall trend and characteristics of natural rubber price in china from November 2008 to April 2016 were analyzed.Then,we build ARIMA model to predict the future short-term natural rubber price,results show that the next 8 weeks the price of natural rubber is between 12～13thousand yuan per ton.Although prices rose slightly,but on the whole,the price is still weak,to safeguard the interests of the farmers and ensure the stable development of the natural rubber industry in China,the government need to take active measures.Firstly,the government should take measures to support natural rubber production,such as Increase the intensity of natural rubber subsidies for growing superior seed varieties and so on.Secondly develop the forests economy,then increase the output and the income of farmers.Finally,encourage domestic enterprises to go out and strive for more natural rubber plant gum resources,reducing reliance on imported natural rubber in our country,to ensure the safety supply of natural rubber in China.