Restructuring And Short-term Prediction Of China's Natural Rubber Safety Self-sufficiency Rate Index

Natural rubber is not only an important strategic material,but also together with coal,steel,and petroleum,it is also called the four major industrial raw materials.It is of great significance for China's national defense security and industrial development.There are more than 100,000 kinds of natural rubber downstream industrial products,which are widely used in all aspects of human social life.It affects and safeguards people's production activities.Because of geographical location,our country has few land resources suitable for planting natural rubber.Although we have overcome the constraints of traditional rubber planting theory through science and technology,we have planted and developed our own natural rubber industry in the recognized "planting rubber exclusion zone",but due to our country's With a large population and a large area,the consumption of natural rubber far exceeds the production volume and depends heavily on imports.China is currently the world's third largest natural rubber planting country,and its production volume ranks fourth in the world,while imports and consumption are also the highest in recent years.Therefore,the supply and demand safety of the natural rubber industry has always been subject to experts and scholars.attention.The general natural rubber safety theory holds that "China's natural South rubber industry should maintain natural rubber self-sufficiency rate of no less than 30%,the minimum annual inventory of natural rubber is about 500,000 tons,and the dependence coefficient of natural rubber foreign trade is less than 70%,natural rubber.The consumption growth factor is about 100%." However,statistics show that self-sufficiency rate of natural rubber in China has been lower than 30%in the past decade,and it is at a dangerous level.However,in recent years,the development of downstream industrial products of natural rubber in China has not been affected and has developed rapidly.Confusedly,we believe that the natural rubber industry in China evaluated by the self-support rate evaluation index system established at the current stage has a great difference between its safety level and its actual status,and it is difficult to meet the research and evaluation of industrial safety.Therefore,it is necessary to reconstruct the characteristics of the development of the natural rubber industry in China at this stage.The new evaluation index system is in no hurry.Based on the basic characteristics of China's natural rubber supply security,this paper analyzes the natural rubber supply structure and demand structure in China.Then,for the three different levels of demand,the definition of the self-sufficiency rate for national defense demand,the self-sufficiency rate for domestic actual consumption,and the apparent self-sufficiency rate for consumption,and the definition of the generalized self-sufficiency rate after subcontracting the control of external sources of rubber,and the model for calculation are described.The necessity and significance of the self-sufficiency rate in the hierarchy calculation,and the difference between the four self-sufficiency rate indicators and the existing self-sufficiency rate evaluation indicators.Finally,we collected data for a total of 17 years from 2000 to 2016,and based on the need to scientifically estimate some of the data that could not be obtained directly,and then calculated the values of the four self-sufficiency rates and analyzed them.In the end,the use of an econometric model predicts trends in the supply and demand for natural rubber in China.In this paper,through theoretical analysis and empirical prediction system,it is difficult for China's natural rubber industrial safety system and economic early warning system to accurately reflect the environment and problems faced by the rubber industry.The main reason is that the set self-sufficiency rate index does not meet China's current situation.At the stage of huge export of rubber industrial products,it is proposed that from the perspective of a global resource strategy,domestic consumption self-sufficiency ratio as the main evaluation indicator,apparent self-sufficiency in consumption,self-sufficiency in defense demand,and broad-based self-sufficiency rate as auxiliary indicators,Establish a self-sufficiency warning line in the safety evaluation system and provide a new idea for the research of China's natural rubber industry.