| Since joining the WTO, the development process of China’s industrialization has accelerated noticeably, however, extensive mode of economic development lead to sharp increase in carbon emissions, and become the largest emitter in 2007. With the haze abruptly spread from the local area to most of our country in 2013, the contradiction between resources and the environment reached an unprecedented grim. How to achieve efficient use of resources, control and reduce carbon emissions has become the urgent problem of low-carbon economy. In the critical stage of industrial transformation and upgrading, to improve the efficiency of resource use, effective control and reduce carbon emissions, China in the " twelfth five-year" put forward strategic goal of the development low-carbon economy, pointing out that technological progress should play a role and take advantage of tune optimization industrial structure, energy structure and other means to achieve carbon reduction targets. Fifth plenary session of the party’s eighteen had put forward "innovative, open, harmonious, green, share" of the five big development ideas, once again stressed the importance of low carbon green and coordinated development. Yunnan-Guizhou-Guangxi Region was located in southwest of China have a common characteristic:economic backwardness, southwest karsts landscape and minority concentrated area. Facing with economic development and control carbon emissions increased double pressure. Under the critical stage of gradually shift to the central and western industrial property in eastern China, as well as "One Belt And One Road " development strategy.With regard to Yunnan-Guizhou-Guangxi Region, how to choose the path of economic development? How should their handle the relationship between economic development and environmental improvement? How to achieve their carbon reduction targets to contribute? How to make a contribution for achieve our country carbon reduction targets?Based on the existing research results, this paper try to analysis from the perspective of space effect with Yunnan-Guizhou-Guangxi Region 39 prefecture-level cities as the interaction mechanism of the carbon productivity and its main influencing factors. First, the carbon productivity of Yunnan-Guizhou-Guangxi Region 39 prefecture-level cities describe the statistical analysis, and use of ESDA spatial autocorrelation LISA test methods and cluster analysis of spatial distribution pattern of carbon productivity and evolution of the global trends, local spatial autocorrelation examination of whether there is Space Clusters in the evolution, Under the combined effect of Space Clusters and how will space spatial distribution pattern changes; And then to establish separately the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model, the spatial econometric model (SEM, SLM), and geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, rationalization of industrial structure, advanced industrial structure, patent grant, public fiscal expenditure, the actual use of foreign direct investment and Per capita GDP variables into econometric model, further analysis of Yunnan-Guizhou-Guangxi Region 39 prefecture-level cities carbon productivity under non-spatial effects, spatial effects and spatial instability and its main factors interaction mechanism. Get the following conclusion:First, the statistical analysis found that carbon productivity change in Yunnan-Guizhou-Guangxi Region 39 prefecture-level cities exhibit phase fluctuations and regional differences in two characteristics from 2006 to 2013. Exploratory spatial data analysis of the global spatial autocorrelation Moran’s I estimate showed that Yunnan-Guizhou-Guangxi Region carbon productivity activities have significantly positive spatial agglomeration effect, and the agglomeration effect changing with time change. Local spatial autocorrelation Moran’s I test also showed that carbon productivity activities in the Beibu Gulf area, western of Yunnan and western regions of Guizhou have shown positive spatial autocorrelation, Yunnan-Guizhou-Guangxi Region internal carbon productivity activities is not steady present spatial agglomeration, but changes with time presents some kind of spatial heterogeneity.Secondly, By comparing the OLS model and spatial econometric model (SLM, SEM) estimation results, found that considering the effect of space spatial econometric model (SLM, SEM) of each variable statistics is better than OLS model, variables and statistical result is not significant under the OLS model, but after considering spatial factor all through the inspection, that means take into account effect of space spatial econometric model is more accurate than OLS model to reveal the effect of each variable to carbon productivity. Lagrange Multiplier estimates and Robust LM estimates suggest selecting spatial lag model is more appropriate when base on WRook,. The elastic coefficient of per capita GDP and the advanced industrial structure respectively 0.3815 and 0.3923 in the spatial lag model, contribution of all variables in the maximum; Public expenditure, patents granted, openness, rationalization of industrial structure elasticity coefficients were -0.0425,0.038,0.036 and -0.0708; Reflect the spillover effect of p estimates show that Yunnan-Guizhou-Guangxi Region carbon productivity level in addition to depending on their own "inputs" elements, but also by the neighborhood carbon productivity spatial spillover effects.Again, Instability analysis of spatial results show that based on GWR model of Yunnan-Guizhou-Guangxi Region 39 prefecture-level cities affirmative coefficients estimate significantly higher than OLS model, in addition to Yuxi, Qianxinan and wenshan, each level variable estimates are not the same too. Show that Yunnan-Guizhou-Guangxi Region 39 prefecture-level cities various influencing factors of carbon productivity existing spatial heterogeneity. Total contribution rate of the advanced industrial structure and economic development to carbon productivity growth above 50% under space considerations instability situation, as two key factors to improve carbon productivity levels of Yunnan-Guizhou-Guangxi Region. The elastic coefficient of rationalization industrial structure showed that the reasonable layout of the three industries can effectively improve level of regional carbon productivity; Elastic coefficient of the degree of opening to the outside is positive, indicating its produce positive effects on carbon productivity improvements, but it doesn’t mean increase foreign direct investment can be achieved through simple carbon productivity growth; The contribution rate of each level of patent grant on carbon productivity growth between 2.42%-23.07%, raise the patent grant of Yunnan-Guizhou-Guangxi Region make have a positive effect on carbon productivity growth, but this effect depends on region innovation ability; increase public expenditure will restrain improve of carbon productivity levels, without considering Yunnan-Guizhou-Guangxi Region internal differences in spatial OLS model overestimated the productivity of public expenditure on carbon inhibition.Finally, based on research conclusion, combined with specific circumstances of Yunnan-Guizhou-Guangxi Region 39 prefecture-level cities, put forward strengthening the university-industry collaboration and technological progress should be utilized to achieve carbon emissions reduction targets; To promote industrial transformation and upgrading, adhere to the road of green development; Adhere to open development, make full use of foreign capital development of low carbon economy; Improve the public finance expenditure structure, raise the proportion of expenditures for energy conservation and emissions reduction policies and measures, etc. |
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