Guizhou Province's Macroeconomic Leading Indicator System Research

With the vigorous development of China's economy,macroeconomic regulation and control requirements are also increasing.Not only have a global macro-economic control,efficiency,and more important to have a certain prescient and predictability.Therefore,the need to establish a scientific and rational and objective macroeconomic indicators monitoring system,real-time dynamic control of the development of the national economy,for the development of sound macroeconomic policies and to carry out economic boom provide decision-making analysis.Leading indicators for the study of the system,although various angles,but also made great achievements,but also has some limitations.The first is the type of research,a lot of researches on the main stay for cyclical theory qualitative research level,there is less real quantitative research data.Followed by the scope of the study,the majority of studies have been staying at the national level,few cases actually involve regional macro-economic leading research.The third point is a single research methods slightly.Most methods use the economic boom of the early warning,information law by K-L and the time difference correlation analysis and other leading indicators selection,and finally the use of economic analysis in the preceding boom,synchronous,lagging other indicators were studied.Firstly,the use of seasonal adjustment,single whole,cointegration test,Granger causality test and other methods of data pre-pilot test of macroeconomic time series Guizhou,select relevant indicators reflect macroeconomic performance of Guizhou Province,after use impulse response function and the error variance analysis model to determine in advance the number of periods in the index system in general case,the final construct leading indicators of the macroeconomic system in Guizhou Province,the main work includes the following four aspects.(1)Establishing the candidate leading indicators library.In reference to domestic and international macroeconomic leading indicators,based on the combination of Guizhou's economic development in recent years,high speed,high quality development of the actual situation,according to leading indicators chosen in advance,economic importance,and periodic data quality principles,to establish appropriate alternative leading indicator of economic development of Guizhou library features.(2)The selection of leading indicators.The reference index and leading indicators of candidate time series X-12 seasonal adjustment,smooth test,cointegration test and Granger causality test,screening can predict the development of Guizhou macroeconomic indicators.(3)Determine the respective leading indicators leading periods.The method used is to use the specific error variance decomposition and variable vector autoregression(VAR)based on the impulse response function.(4)Synthesis of leading indicators and an empirical test.This article will deal with different leading indicators of a comprehensive reference to the Beijing-related practices in this regard,to synthesize leading index,a composite index drawing FIG Guizhou Province macroeconomic leading indicators,combined with the actual development of empirical economic research.Selection and preparation of synthetic index of leading indicators by,on the basis of analysis of the main reasons of economic fluctuations,thus providing a theoretical reference for the Guizhou Province Macroeconomic forecasts and future economic trends.