Research On Emergency Risk Decision-making Based On BDN And Multi-Agent

Emergency events can cause great harm, affecting social and economic development, people's living standards and social order. In recent years, the emergency events occurred frequently, the research on emergency decision-making receives more and more attention. Emergency decision-making is different from general decisions, it is a process that decision makers according kinds of emergencies, develop emergency decision plan. The emergency has high degree of uncertainty, emergency response often face a number of scenarios, leads to the occurrence of small probability and high harm result, so emergency decision-making is usually risky. How to select the best emergency plan in uncertain circumstances, reduce the decision risk is also one of the hot research topic. At the same time, the agent participating decision-making is not a single body, decision-making plan is formulated jointly by many departments and organizations, so the emergency decision-making is a kind of multi-agent decision-making.Emergency response is very complicated, multi body have to join decisions so as to improve the accuracy of decision; Because the incident has uncertainty, participation in decision-making, the decision-making of emergency the decisions, alternative decision plan, and the relationship among them is uncertain. In this paper, the risk analysis method is proposed considering multi-agent characteristics to solve the risk decision-making problems in emergency response. First of all, this paper analyzed the uncertain relationship among multi-agents, the basic characteristics of the decision maker, decision-making, decision-making plan and the relationship among them. In order to describe the emergency risk decision-making problem, this paper import the Agent theory, using Agent model represent decision maker; at the same time introduced the Bayesian decision network(BDN), and applies it to describe the relationship among decision maker, decision-making and decision-making plan; and establish multi-agent emergency risk decision framework for the analysis of dynamic emergency decision-making process. Then, in multi-agent emergency risk decision-making framework, considering the risk decision problems caused by the uncertainty of decision maker, decision-making, decision-making plan and the relationship among them, multi-attribute decision-making plan selection method is proposed, the method calculate the value of all alternatives, then sort them and get the optimal solution.Finally, to solve the demand of plan adjustment, considering the treatment effect of adjusting alternatives, losses, adjustment costs and risk factors, this paper proposed the multi-stage emergency decision method for dynamic adjusting alternatives based on risk decision-making, and through the actual case to analysis the method is effective.Under the background of the flood emergency, in view of the plan selection and adjustment of the two situation of case analysis, under three different decision objective, plan selection of case analysis the decision-making process and the relationship among decision-maker, decision-making and decision-making plan; Plan adjustment of case analysis specific process of plan adjustment under the three possible level of disaster situations. The results of case analysis verify the feasibility and rationality of the proposed emergency decision-making method.