Analysis On Early Warning Of Land Eco-security Of Songzi City

In the background of grim land eco-security and national advocacy of ecological civilization, there is great significance to carry out the analysis of early warnings of land eco-security, in order to create national ecological city and maintain eco-security of land system in Songzi.Based on the land eco-security status of Songzi, early warning of land eco-security was studied and discussed under the guidance of land ecological security theory. The paper includes the following parts:(1) System combing the domestic and foreign research and basic theories about early warning of land eco-security;(2) Analysis of current land eco-security status and then clarified land ecosystems security issues which existed in Songzi;(3) Construction of land eco-security warning index system based on DPSIR-NES model;(4) Analysis of early warning situation changes of land eco-security in Songzi by synthetic index method;(5) Construction of GM(1,1)-RBF neural network model to forecast land ecological security alarm evolution trend in Songzi.The paper concluded that:(1) The main factors driving the evolution of Songzi land ecological security were social and economic ones;(2) DPSIR-NES model of the early warning indicator system of land ecological security system was divided into: the target layer, criterion layer, factor layer and index layer;(3) Results of Songzi land ecological security alarm level showed: in 2002-2006, the land eco-security level was in serious-warning state, however, it showed signs of improvement from severe-warning to light-warning state in the years of 2007-2014;(4) GM(1,1)-RBF neural network model could establish a network between land ecological security evolution and early warning indicators. The prediction results showed: The early warning index of Songzi was between 0.6682-0.7199, with the security alarm level of light alarm from the year 2015 to 2019.