Study On Early Warning Of Regional Land Ecological Security

Land is mother of wealth, land is foundation of human. Human depends on the land to survival and multiply, human society develops because of the land dependence. Not long ago, human has created the magnificent ancient civilization using the land, but simultaneously the human activity aggravating and the unreasonable land development and utilization increasing makes these brilliant civilization suffering ruinous destruction. Until today, the land ecosystem still continues to face from the growing serious destruction of human, even that also threatens human own security. Various countries practice indicated that all kinds of human economic activities incompatible with ecological law, such as over-exploitation of land resources, reclamation on steep slopes, large deforestation, over-herding on pasture, industrial pollution, excessive concentration of urban congestion and so on, will lead to arousing serious ecological crisis and even to causing land ecosystem degradation. From the frequent natural punishment and the profound lessons of tortured disaster caused by violating land ecosystem law, the humanity gradually awaken to: the only way for radical curing this problem endangering human own security is to maintain safe development of land ecosystem. Early warning of land ecological security can play a "nip in the bud" role in the maintenance of land ecological security and control of land ecosystem deterioration, which is an effective way. Based on grasping evolution law of land ecological security, early warning study of regional land ecological security can identification warning condition and its severity of land ecological security, so that people can as early as possible make warning and alarming and take measures to effectively inhibit, mitigate, control, regulation before the land ecosystem degradation and qualitative change, which can make land ecosystem step into benign cycle. Development of early warning study of regional land ecological security is undoubtedly of great theoretic meaning and application prospect to perfect land ecological security theory, maintain land ecological security and realize regional sustainable development.Based on above, using for reference of existing land ecological security research and warning research, this paper introduces warning theory to land ecological security research field, and forms more systematic research system about early warning of regional land ecological security. Firstly, this paper defines the concepts of land ecological security, early warning, early warning of regional land ecological security, and analyses evolution principle of land ecological security so as to further carrying out research on early warning of regional land ecological security. Secondly, this paper expounds analysis principle, characteristics, and function about study on early warning of regional land ecological security, and puts forward general analysis framework. According to the general analysis framework, this paper further discusses the construction of early warning index system of regional land ecological security, analysis model of warning condition and regulation system for eliminating warning of regional land ecological security. Finally, this paper takes Huaian City as an example and makes a detailed demonstration analysis.This paper holds that the essence of land ecological security is harmonious development between land resource and human and sustainable development of Natural-Social -Economic complex land ecosystem aiming at regional sustainable development. It consists of double meaning: one is the land ecosystem self-security, another is land ecosystem security to human. Research on early warning of regional land ecological security is meant analysis of evolution principle of land ecological security, clarity of critical factors and functions affecting land ecological security, establishment of early warning index system of regional land ecological security reflecting characteristic of regional land ecological security and warning threshold of these indexes, measure, analysis and evaluation of present and future situation of land ecological security using mathematical model, forecast of abnormal space-time range and damage degree, present of solving measures about existing problem and preventing suggestions about upcoming problem that is used in guiding the construction of guarantee system for land ecological security.It is consider that evolution of land ecological security is that dissipative structure is formed by land ecological security level in the process of dynamic development which is constant change and development, that catastrophic phenomenon exists in evolution process of land ecological security which can occur at a short time and cause destruction and collapse of land ecosystem, that there exists commonly mutual correlation, mutual restriction, mutual promotion, and coordinated development rule among land ecological security subsystems, among every element in subsystem, and between land ecological security system and environment.After above analysis of evolution principle of land ecological security, this paper points out: For early warning of regional land ecological security, the analysis principles should consist of combination with generality and specialty, practicality, feedforward, combination with qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, combination with normative analysis and empirical analysis. Not only some typical characters such as complication, multi-function, dynamic and limitation etc. can be clearly showed, but also some functions of forecast, inspection, regulation and guide are included in early warning of regional land ecological security. Moveover, the general analysis framework is to be constructed mostly by three parts: index system of early warning, analysis model of warning condition and regulation system for eliminating warning.Within this general analysis framework, this paper points out: Early warning index system of regional land ecological security should consist of those three subsystem, such as nature subsystem, society subsystem, and economic subsystem. The methods about determination of warning threshold mainly should be concluded two kinds of absolute determination and relative determination. Analysis model of warning condition consists of two sub-model: one is prediction sub-model of warning condition based on BP neural network, another is evaluation sub-model of warning condition based on variable weight comprehensive evaluation. Warning condition level should be divided into five grades: no warning condition, light warning condition, moderate warning condition, severe warning condition, tremendous warning condition. To regulation system for eliminating warning of land ecological security: The basic structure should consist of five part: regulation subject and controlled object, input and output, goal and behavior, information transmission and its feedback, decision and measure. The function of regulation system for eliminating warning of land ecological security should consist of guide, coordination, self-control, and steady. The process should consist of six stages: investigate controlled object, determine regulation goal, feed back regulation information, make regulation project, implement regulation project, adjust controlled condition. The mechanism should consist of seven respects: planning mechanism, legal mechanism, administration mechanism, policy mechanism, decision mechanism, coordination mechanism, economic mechanism.After that theoretical analysis, this paper carries out a demonstration by taking Huaian City as an example. The results show that: the general status of land ecological security is in situation of moderate warning condition in Huaian City and there is unstable trend in development process of land ecological security in Huaian City. The general status of land ecological security is fairly well during the period from 2001 to 2005 in Huaian City, and the general status of land ecological security improves with great fluctuation. Especially, the status of economic subsystem decreases toward unfavorable direction with great fluctuation. If this trend at present is kept and no positive and effective measures are made, the general status of land ecological security has a little falling and is still in situation of moderate warning condition in Huaian City. Moreover, the general status of land ecological security is sensitive to nature subsystem and society subsystem. In addition, there are fifteen key factors in early warning index system for land ecological security in Huaian City, and the contribution of these key factors among economic subsystem and society subsystem to their responsive subsystem is bigger than the contribution of these key factors among nature subsystem. If concerned departments increasingly pay attention to this question, and take comprehensive management measures according to the ten aspects for these fifteen key factors proposed in this study, and complete the setting regulation target of these key factors for eliminating warning of land ecological security in 2010, the general status of land ecological security will gradually step into light warning condition.