Study On Early Warning Of Regional Cultivated Land Resources Security

Cultivated land resources is the most valuable material foundation for maintaining the ecological entirement,survival and development of the human beings. In recent decades, with the rapid development of our society and economy, all kinds of construct have occupied lots of cultivated land, especially high-quality cultivated land,which makes the quantity of cultivated land kept on increasing and the quality decreasing.Against the background, conducting early warning of cultivated land resources security is of great significance in ensuring China's food security, promoting the rational allocation of cultivated land resources and alleviating the contradiction between huamans and land.On the basis of drawing lessons from foreign and domestic theories, research methods and research fruits, the paper, from the respective of the concepts and connotation of cultivated land resources security, attempts to establish the early warning system from the following three aspects of cultivated land:quantity security,quality security and society-economic security.It also has mades study of Bozhou city to early warn of its cultivated land resouces security in the year 2015.(1) Forcasting the pressure index of regional cultivated land. On the basis of the data about the cultivated land areas, food productivity and population changes during 2000-2009 of Bozhou, this dissertation, through related index forcast, has calculated the real per capita cultivated land area and the least per capita cultivated land area in 2015, it also introduced the pressure index model of cultivated land to probe the pressure of cultivated land of Bozhou city in 2015.The research indicates that the cultivated land of Bozhou in 2015 has no obvious pressure, food production can not only meet the demands of economic development and growing population, as well as a large surplus for Anhui Province to make contributions for the whole country.(2)Study on early warning of regional cultivated land resources security.Firstly, establishing the early warning system to make a warning score of various indeces; secondly, using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to construct the warning model, so as to determine the safety level of Bozhou in 2015. The research indicates that the land resources safety accounts for 74.17% and 25.83% in case of small and middle waring. With the fuzzy characteristic quantity of safety grade, the vector value 0.6156 can determine that the land resources safety is in the lower level, that is to say, it will fall to the middle safety level if no attendtion paid. Therefore, measures should be taken to enhance the level of pretecting the safety level of future cultivated land resources of Bozhou from now on.