Real Estate Listed Company Financial Crisis Warning Research

Financial early-warning model is a management tool, it recognizes the crisis and provides early warning signals to investors and managers, it can identify the existence of the crisis before things happen and predict the risk. With the growing role of financial early warning models, scholars have also begun to pay increasing attention to the topic, and build many types of models. Simple, efficient financial crisis forecasting models play an important role in the enterprise. To build a simple and efficient financial crisis early-warning model for the discovery of the corporate crisis and prevention services, has the major theoretical and practical significance.The article selected real estate industry because the industry has a large investment and long payback period, it is risky, and is associated with other industries, it played a leading role, the real estate industry is one of the pillar and leading industry, its development is closely related to the development of national economy. Stock market information disclosure is increasingly standardized, using this opportunity, the article collected related financial data as financial indicators and used non-financial indicators of the real estate listed companies to build a financial crisis early-warning model, this model for corporate parties provide the basis for judgment and analysis of business conditions for corporate parties.The purpose of the writing of the article is building a financial crisis early-warning model at the point of view on the real estate business. The article first discusses the relevant theories of the early warning of financial crisis, and then analyzes the influencing factors of the real estate corporate finance crisis, financial crisis early warning indicator system was constructed on this basis, and builds the index system based on the financial crisis early warning model, building the model uses the principal component analysis.The article selected all the real estate industry of the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange listed companies from two aspects of financial and non financial indicators on the risk profile as the study sample, the time span is from2006to2010,total of five years. For the availability of data, the article does not cover all of the real estate industry enterprises, but only selects listed companies to conduct research. The article selected financial indicators, including the three aspects, namely:solvency, operational capacity and profitability. Solvency indicators are divided into two kinds of short-term solvency indicators and long-term solvency indicators, short-term solvency indicators include current ratio, quick ratio, cash ratio and cash flow ratio, total of four financial indicators, long-term solvency indicators include asset-liability ratio, equity multiplier, the long-term capital debt ratio, interest coverage, cash flow interest coverage ratio and cash flow debt than a total of six indicators. Operational capacity indicator relates to the accounts receivable turnover, inventory turnover, current asset turnover, working capital turnover ratio, non-current asset turnover and total asset turnover,total of six indicators. The profitability indicators cover the sales profit margin, return on assets and interests in net profit margin of three indicators. The articles selected non-financial indicators, including the audit of non-financial indicators, the ownership structure of non-financial indicators, the corporate governance of non-financial indicators and other indicators. Audit of non-financial indicators refers to the type of audit report issued by the accounting firm, the ownership structure of non-financial indicators includes the proportion of state shares, the proportion of legal person shares, the proportion of outstanding shares and the largest proportion of shareholding four indicators.Corporate governance of non-financial indicators, including whether the size of the board chairman and general manager is one person and proportion of independent directors three indicators. Other indicators include whether secured this indicator.