| At present,Hebei economic development has entered a new normal,industrialization,informatization,urbanization,agricultural modernization continued to promote the rural economy of profound social change. Eighth session of the Fifth Plenary pointed out: comprehensive rural reform is an important content of deepening reform,consolidate and improve socialism with Chinese characteristics rural basic economic system,accelerate agricultural development pattern,improve the protection of national food security and promote sustainable development of agriculture and farmers continued to increase institutional mechanisms,efforts to remove institutional barriers to urban-rural dual structure,in order to accelerate agricultural modernization with Chinese characteristics provide an institutional guarantee. The primary task of the rural reform is to solve the farmers and land-related issues,the transfer of rural land and labor interests involve more complex,more diverse goals,influencing factors more diverse,more arduous task. Rural reform comprehensive,by man onrush difficult to work,it must establish a systematic thinking,good top-level design and overall planning.Through Status of Rural Land Circulation and Labor Transfer of Hebei Province analysis found that rural land circulation problems in the process,to identify factors;Secondly,based on gray system theory,according to specific,comprehensive,scientific and operational index system principles,this paper selects the nine indicators of the labor force and other transfer as a comparative sequence Xi,select rural land area as a reference sequence X0,the establishment of gray correlation analysis model,has been associated with the impact of various factors. Then,based on GM(1,1) model theory,GM(1,1) prediction model,the cumulative change in the trend of the number of transfer of rural labor force in Hebei Province next five years to predict. Finally,the policies and proposals to promote rural reform and agricultural modernization. |
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