Study On The Earning Risk And Countermeasure Of Urban Rail Transit PPP Project

In recent years,the PPP mode not only become the important way to solve the local infrastructure and public service mission in the new situation,but also become a important gripper of financial system reform,investment and financing system reform,it is the important way of transforming government functions and improving the capacity of national governance.With the increasing of city population in our country and the accelerating of the urbanization process,the demand of the urban rail transportation that is one of the city infrastructure in every city is more and more widely,urban rail transportation in our country has entered a vigorous development period.However,because of the large investment scale and the long construction period,urban rail transportation brings giant financial pressure to the government.Therefore,our country actively advocates the PPP mode to reduce the pressure on government finances,and improve the public service level of projects at the same time.As the important subject of the PPP projects,however,participate enthusiasm of private in the PPP project is not high,in addition to the financing ability of private itself,and,more importantly is the understanding of PPP project is not comprehensive,the risk is difficult to handle,the income is difficult to guarantee,thus can't really participate in the PPP project.Therefore,the research on the earnings risk of the urban rail transit PPP project from the perspective of private and putting forward corresponding measures to deal with risks,it have the great significance to arousing the enthusiasm of the private and promoting the healthy development of the PPP projects in China.This paper take urban rail transit PPP project as research object,from the private perspective,the main research content includes the following three aspects:(1)Clarifing the definition of PPP model,characteristics and development of urban rail transit project,and analyzing the role of social capital in the PPP project and self-knowledge,helping private fully know the PPP project.(2)Through risk checklist method and RBS decomposition method to identify the earnings of the risk of urban rail transit PPP projects in faced by private,and established the index system of risk factors set;Modified AHP with the method of grey correlation analysis to evaluated loss rate of the project risk indicators,using Shapley value model to evaluate the probability of occurrence of risk indicators.(3)Appling risk identification and evaluation method to the instances,quantificating each risk index in the index system,and turning into decision data.This paper puts forward the risk strategy when negotiating with government departments with the perspective of private,and introduced the application bargaining model in game theory systemly,and on the basis of reasonable risk sharing,puted forward the earnings risk countermeasures and suggestions for privateThrough analysis and research,the main results were as follows: one is through risk checklist method and RBS decomposition method to identify and established in urban rail transit PPP project earnings risk index system based on social private angle,including 7 and 21 secondary indicator;Secondly,by introducing instance,adopting AHP-gray correlation degree analysis model and Shapley value to evaluate the risk index respectively,this paper concludes that the sorting of seven first-level indicators is construction risk,market risk,financial risk,policy risk,management risk,credit risk and force majeure risk;Third,according to the result of risk assessment,proposed the project risk sharing revenue risk based on game theory and project income risk measures.The research result shows that through the study of income risk in urban rail transit PPP projects of private and puts forward specific measures,it can enhance awareness of private to the PPP projects,mobilize their enthusiasm to participate in projects,promote the comprehensive development of the PPP project.