Risk Management Research On PPP Model Based On Urban Rail Transit Project

With China's rapid economic development, we approach the need of large-capacity public transport is growing. Although urban rail transit traffic which is convenient, fast, less pollution and so on can meet the large capacity of transport, it faces with financial bottleneck and management efficiency. In recent years, with the development of PPP model in infrastructure, it has become an effective way to solve the funds in infrastructure including urban rail transit projects which are invested by government. However the organizational structure of PPP model is complex, and the targets of public and private sectors are also different, so lots of risks are appeared during the operation. According to economic characteristics and unique features of PPP models, this paper makes a research on the risk management of PPP model in urban rail transit project systematically, comprehensively from the perspective of the private sector.The thesis makes a comprehensive analysis of risk management research status about project finance. It combines the characteristic of PPP risk management with urban rail transit quasi-public goods characteristic and the application status of PPP model at home and abroad. The main line of this paper is the basic procedure of risk management which includes risk identification, risk assessment, risk sharing and management. This paper uses qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation and combines the theory with empirical analysis, builds PPP project's comprehensive system about risk management in urban rail transit from the perspective of the whole risk management.First of all, the paper introduces the project risk definited by the current domestic and foreign scholars and project risk management's development process. It conducts comprehensive risk identification on the PPP model in urban rail transit projects based on risk variation in the project cycle and the characteristics of check list and RBS method.Secondly, based on the risk identification of PPP model in urban rail transit, this paper uses Group Analytical Hierarchy Process (G-AHP) to make a scientific quantitative risk assessment on the PPP model by analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of Analytic Hierarchy (AHP). G-AHP uses the method that multiple experts score the risk factors in the same group, and determines the weights of different experts by the judgment matrix's consistency in the scoring process. It makes objective judgment and sorting on the project risk factors by a comprehensive judgment matrix referred to the weight of experts. This method effectively solves the consistency problem in AHP judgment matrix and the influence of individual expert's subjective preference to risk assessment.Then, this paper establishes a linear programming model, solve the satisfaction function, can make the participants'overall satisfaction biggest under the prerequisite of fixed overall risks. This method can make the risk sharing more reasonable between all participants to management risks effectively by study the risk sharing mechanism of PPP model in urban rail transit. According to the linear programming model's optimization results and huge research results all over the world, this paper proposes the risk sharing program of PPP model in urban rail transit and the risk management measures which can get the advantages of PPP model to make solid basis for the market operation in urban rail transit. The linear programming model can solve the government funds and the management efficiency problems, while it can put new invest return methods for private sectors. Because of this, the government and the private sectors can provide more high-quality and inexpensive services to achieve "win-win" results after the mutually beneficial community formed.Finally, based on the risk management case in PPP model of Beijing 4th Metro Line, this paper conducts comprehensively the systematic analysis and research of the risks in the whole process including project approval, feasibility study, design, construction and operation. It verifies the scientific of the integrated research methods and technology route which are used in this paper. And the results of this research can also be referenced by other urban rail transits.