The Agreement On Trade And Services Between The Two Sides Of The Taiwan Straits And Its Research On The Trade Effects Of Taiwan

In recent years, since the global financial crisis broke out frequently, various countries and regions have the tendency of signed free trade agreement and establish free trade area in order to promote the growth of economic and investment. They through reducing or exempting customs duty, relax market access conditions and other measures to attract economic cooperation among parties, as to promote the liberalization of trade and investment, then maximize to share the profits of economic globalization. In such an background of global economic, both sides of the straits breaking the rigid situation which due to historical and political reasons slowly, and then strengthen economic cooperation in two areas. On June 21,2013, on the basis of ECFA and through a series of negotiation, both sides of the straits signed "The cross-strait service trade agreement". But part of Taiwan people do not really understand the contents of the agreement and incited by some people, think there are too much limits of China to Taiwan and both sides of the range is wrong and so on in this agreement, resulting in this agreement has been failed to implements officially,Based on whether "The cross-strait service trade agreement" has the sighed foundation? how will it impact the employment of Taiwan? What kind of benefits it can bring to Taiwan? such issues and so on, article firstly measured and analysis those index such as the overall development level, international competitiveness, openness, revealed comparative advantage; then measured the open equivalence of both sides in this agreement followed by frequency method Hoekman; finally based on the analysis of the trade effect of value at risk(VAR) model, adopts the method of empirical analysis, through steps such as construct model, index selection, data processing etc. article build VAR model between this three variables in Taiwan's gross domestic product(GDP), Taiwan's employment and cross-strait trade in services. This paper finally draws those conclusions:1.Currently, the prospects of the development of cross-strait trade in services is not optimistic, there is a large gap compared with developed countries, especially in Taiwan, so both sides need to expand the market, through the cooperation between different regions to improve the international competitiveness of the service sector in the region;2.Through analysis the level of the international competition of the industry from both sides of trade in service, as well as TC index, RCA index and CA index, it can be found has this phenomenon that there big difference of both side services sub sectors and strong complementary advantages and disadvantages of mutual inhibition. Therefore, there is a foundation to carry out trade in service in cross-strait;3.Through Hoekman frequency estimates to "The cross-strait service trade agreement", found both sides of the commitment is not poor, in line with international practice, so there is not Taiwan anti suit trade believed that the mainland restrict Taiwan too much, open range is wrong and so on. In contrast, compared the commitment of the two both sides access WTO, mainland has sincerity than Taiwan obviously;4.Based on the analysis of value at risk(VAR) model, thought that with the increase of cross-strait trade in services, Taiwan's economic will growth and the level of employment in Taiwan also will improved. So "The cross-strait service trade agreement" in the long term seems to be able to improve Taiwan's economy and its employment.In the last, the paper puts forward relevant suggestions, to promote cross-strait service trade cooperation and provide the reference to improve the international competitiveness of cross-strait trade in services.