Analysis Of Factors And Effects Of Road Traffic Energy Consumption

As the major cause of smog air pollution problems, the road traffic emissions have attracted much attention at present, not only by the government, but also the public, how to deal with the relationship between the economy and the environmental protection take an important place. In addition, the proverb "to get rich first build roads" depicts the development of road transportation is significance to boost the economy, and also improve their living. With the increasing of motor vehicle ownership and road traffic demand, road traffic has became the focus of the economic growth and urban air pollution contradictory deterioration. With the improving of the industrialization level, industrial energy through continuous reform in the industrial structure optimization, the average energy consumption is reduced in industrial sector, and the transportation as the provision of goods or passengers realize spatial displacement of the service sector, especially in road transportation, which plays a key role of cohesion in economic activities, will be the main oil consumption departments, the main, the consumption of gasoline and diesel by the road traffic department accounted for 90% and 50% in the proportion of all industry sector consumption. And in recent years, China's the car ownership level from 2001 to 2001 has been increase at an average annual rate of 17.7%, and the car ownership has increased to 154 million vehicles in 2014, environment will face come from road transportation exhaust after fossil fuel consumption (including CO, CO2, HC, NOx, etc.) pollution stress, especially the high density urban environment. Therefore, this paper focus on the road traffic department. In order to alleviate energy conservation and emissions reduction air pollution perspective, we explore the influence factors of road transport energy consumption and its influence mechanism, which is significance to the guide of sustainable development of the road traffic to deal with the relationship between the economy and the environmental protection.Through the summarized analysis of the related research results of road traffic in the domestic and foreign and based on the analysis of the status quo of energy consumption, the road transport energy consumption decomposes into road traffic demand and road traffic energy intensity two aspects, first of all. establish bayes structural equation model to explore the influence factors of road traffic demand, through the MCMC-Gibbs method of the index data of 2000-2014 samples after capacity expansion, using bayesian analysis method of exploratory analysis of the construction of infrastructure, transportation costs, economic activity and road traffic demand for the interaction relationship between latent variables, secondly, based on the technology progress and quantify energy conservation policies, explore its road traffic energy intensity and the impact of road traffic emissions. In addition, through to the road traffic based on the analysis of the factors influencing the decomposition of energy consumption, the demand for road traffic factors, road traffic and road transportation energy consumption mechanism to further explore the influence of exhaust emission, by establishing the system structure model, and further explores the cause effect produced by road traffic infrastructure, technology progress and rebound effect of energy saving policy, etc., comprehensively discusses the effects of various factors on road traffic energy consumption, explores in depth the factors on the impact of road traffic system energy consumption mechanism. The results showed that:(1) Based on the influence factors of road traffic demand to explore, to measure the various factors directly influence and comprehensive influence coefficient, found that the size of the road infrastructure comprehensive effect is the largest, followed by economic activity, and directly affect the effects of transportation costs and the comprehensive effect both the minimum;(2) The traffic cost covers the new car price driving, vehicle maintenance, depreciation, fuel cost, etc., the total cost of road traffic transportation demand of negative effect, and the vehicle driving cost and there is positive relationship between car ownership and shows that the decision to hold the car, new car price is people to buy and hold car consideration, but the rising cost of car driving at present does not inhibit the needs of Chinese consumers to buy and hold a car;(3) By considering traffic fuel-efficiency policies quantitatively, found that intensity of road transportation fuel policy and fuel there is significant negative correlation between relationship, show the effectiveness of China's fuel efficiency policy, namely reduce the fuel consumption level of the unit mileage fuel policy, promoting the improvement of the efficiency;(4) The driving cost (including fuel price factor) on the fuel efficiency ways mainly include:in the effects of changes in driving habits, promoting technical progress, encourage people to buy energy saving vehicles, etc., need a long time to show effect. by measuring, fuel prices on the fuel efficiency of long-term elasticity is 0.02, shows in China by raising fuel prices and other relevant policies in order to improve the fuel efficiency of influence is not significant;(4) With the passage of time, that is, in the long run, the road traffic infrastructure formation cause effect and rebound effect which is formed by the technology progress and energy saving policy will gradually weakened;(5) As existence of efficiency policies and technical progress, reduced the driving unit mileage fuel costs by 1%, in the short term, will increased the road traffic demand, road traffic and road traffic pollution emission energy consumption by 1.3%,1.2% and 1.3% respectively, and the long term, will make them increased by 0.17%,0.17% and 0.17% respectively, when road accessibility increased by 1%, in the short term, the road traffic demand will increase by 1.26%, road transport energy consumption increased by 1.29%, and emissions will increase by 0.013%, and in the long run, lead to demand effect is 1.1, lead to energy consumption effect is 1.12, caused by emissions effect is 0.008.