The Rebound Effect For China's Manufacturing Industry And Energy Saving Policy Analysis

It is concluded that the policy of energy saving in our country is mostly through the promotion of energy efficiency to achieve the goal of energy saving, based on Chinese energy policy at the national level, industrial level, manufacturing industry level and high energy consuming industry level analysis in this paper. However, further analysis of the current status of Chinese energy consumption found that whatever in the overall national level,industrial level, manufacturing industry level or high energy consuming industry level, the promotion of energy efficiency on the amount of energy consumption has not been significantly inhibited. The contradiction between the energy efficiency and the total energy is produced by the reason of the economic growth too fast, the industrial structure is heavy and the rebound effect. Among them, the rebound effect is the most crucial factor, and it is also the important factor that government has neglected in the energy conservation policy making.Energy efficiency improvement will reduce the effective price of energy services, and hence at least partially mitigate original expected energy conservation. This paper divided rebound effect by direct effects, indirect effects and overall economic rebound effect by balancing domestic and international mainstream research results. Factors which affects the rebound effect included market and non market factors. Market factors included price factors and energy supply. The non market factors included technological innovation and industrial structure.In order to estimate the value of rebound effect, this paper established the cost share equations by the form of translog function,and using DOLS to correct it, and using SUR to estimated it,and considering the effect of time series. The estimation without considering asymmetric price in Chinese manufacturing industry is about 12 percent. The further introduction of asymmetric price response mechanism of the rebound effect in the 1980?2013 years, the rebound effect is about 33%. The reason of the energy rebound effect is the long update cycle of manufacturing equipment, the bottleneck of energy supply, the distortion of the energy factor market and the change of industrial structure.At the end of this paper, the rebound effect estimates based on, thinking from the four aspects of energy prices, energy supply, technological innovation and industrial structure of the policy recommendations of the analysis, and put forward the relevant policy recommendations in the four aspects. Technological innovation, the state should encourages technical innovation, and continuous technology innovation of manufacturing production equipment; in the industrial structure, encourage the adjustment of industrial structure upgrade, has focused on the development of and eliminate some of backward industries and auxiliary to the balanced development of policy; price source, on the one hand, encourage the market-oriented reform of energy prices, another with energy tax and other administrative means to reflect the external costs of energy consumption; energy supply, energy supply structure adjustment increase new energy and renewable energy proportion, increase in the traditional energy supply to ease the energy supply bottlenecks.