An Analysis Of The Economic Effects Of China's Free Trade Zone Construction With The Commonwealth Of Independent States

The document,which is?Promote to build the silk road economic belt and the 21st century the vision and action of the Marine silk road?,points out that the cooperation of investment and trade is the key content of the construction of the "One Belt And One Road",should focus on solve the problem of investment and trade liberalization,eliminate the barriers,of investment and trade,build the good business environment,cooperate with countries and regions along with "One Belt And One Road" to build FTA actively,release the cooperation potential and do well in the "cake" of cooperation.On May 12,2015,Minister Gao Chenghu said China and the "Eurasian economic union" launched the economic and trade cooperation partnership agreement,the two sides will build trade facilitation by the agreement of institutional arrangements,eventually establish a FTA.Given China and CIS,including Eurasian economic union,FTA negotiations has not fully at the negotiation stage,we can only reach the free trade zone economic effect.In this paper,I not only apply the gravity model,but also use the GTAP model.In the gravity model,I use the trade panel data from 1995 to 2015 of China and CIS countries,then on the basis of the gravity model I measure the bilateral trade potential coefficient.Next,I use the GTAP model to do the free trade policy simulation.According to the calculation of bilateral trade gravity model coefficient,as a whole the trade type between China and the CIS countries is "potential pioneer ",it means that trade between China and the CIS countries has not give full play to their potential,and must enlarge a space.But from the national level,trade relations between China and Azerbaijan has experienced by the 1995 potential go-ahead to the huge potential;Trade relations between China and Belarus,Kyrgyzstan is potential reshaping;China and Moldova,Tajikistan,Uzbekistan,Armenia is potential trade has been in the phase of pioneering.According to the result of the GTAP model,we can see that:When "Eurasian economic union" members,domestic tariffs dropped to 0,China with CIS including Eurasian economic union agree with the free trade agreement,China have largely positive effects,and the CIS countries' influences are limited.Then we analyze the changes of productivity in different industrial sectors in China,When "Eurasian economic union" members' domestic tariffs dropped to 0,I reduce China and CIS members' insensitive industrial tariffs 50%and 100%respectively;Industry import tariffs for sensitivity reduce 33.3%,66.7%and 33.3%respectively,and set the sensitive tariff is less than the sensitivity,China has a lot of trade surplus in food processing,textile,wood and paper industry,metal products,automotive and transportation equipment,electronic equipment and machinery manufacturing and other manufacturing,and have a large trade deficit in agriculture,forestry and fishing,energy minerals,chemical products and non-ferrous metal industry aspects,because of that China and CIS countries are differences in the industry,building the FTA beneficial to give full play to comparative advantage of the bilateral respective industries.