Spatial Correlation Analysis On Circulation Industry In The Yangtze River Delta

The Yangtze River Delta is one of the most important urbanagglomerations in China,and its economic,social and cultural development levels are all in the forefront of the whole country.Along with the upgrading of social economic structure and industrial reform,status of business circulation has become increasingly important in the economy.As the leading industry in the Yangtze River Delta economy,circulation industry occupies a position that can not be ignored.This paper mainly researches the level of development of commercial circulation industry in the Yangtze River Delta,using panel data(2005-2014)of 24 cities in the Yangtze River Delta except Suqian to explore the spatial relationship,on the basis of which,this paper establishes a spatial econometric model to find influence factors and convergence characteristics.Firstly,this paper uses the method of global spatial autocorrelation and local spatial autocorrelation in exploratory spatial statistics to measure the space correlation of circulation industries in the Yangtze River Delta.The research finds that there exist significant spatial autocorrelation and the spatial correlation is gradually increasing,and the southern area of Jiangsu and Shanghai show "HH" aggregation,the northern part of Jiangsu Province is a significant "LL" gathering area,Zhejiang's circulation industry growth rate is relatively low.Secondly,considering the spatial correlation,this paper establishes Spatial Dubin Model on the basis of model test to make empirical analysis of the main factors that influence the development of commercial circulation industry in the Yangtze River Delta.Overall,the urbanization level,the opening degree and the per capita consumption expenditure have a significant positive effect on trade flows,foreign direct investment has a significant negative effect on commercial circulation,and added value of circulation industry showes significantly positive spillover effects that can affect the development of the surrounding cities' commercial circulation industry.On the basis,this paper make effect decomposition of independent variables,and finds that the Urbanization level and per capita consumption expenditure have direct spatial spillover effect,indirect effect and total effect,the opening degree and FDI have obvious direct effect,while the indirect effect and total effect are not significant.Furthermore,this paper use the index analysis method to make a convergence test for the per capita circulation added-value,of which there is a trend of a convergence during the study period.Then use the significant factors in Spatial Dubin Model as constraints,and construct the Spatial Lag Model and Spatial Error Model to test the absolutely 3 convergence and conditioned p convergence of the per capita circulation added-value.It turned out that the spatial p convergence of the Yangtze River Delta's per capita circulation added-value and Zhejiang's are obvious,while the Jiangsu's is not obvious.