Analysis Of The Measurement And Causes Of Capital Flight In China

Nowadays,the economic has international tendency and international capital is occupying more and more market share.It brings huge economic development,but at the same time,it also brings economic risk to the countries.Capital flight is one of the threats to national economic security.Capital flight is defined as a special phenomenon of capital flow,which has an extremely bad influence on the economic development of a country.Until now,there has not a unified definition of capital flight in academic circles because different scholars adopted different research methods and different perspectives.By reading a large number of literature and writing,it's found that most researchers have a consensus on capital flight:capital flight is abnormal capital flow.A large number of capital flight is a threat to national stability and economic development.China is a developing country whose economic development depends on the stock of capital.It is also committed to bringing in foreign investment to promote economic development.But capital flight has played the opposite role in attracting foreign investment.Recent years,China's capital flight phenomenon is more and more serious.The scale of capital flight is becoming larger which not only hinders the rapid development of economy,but also has become a threat to national economic security.Therefore,the comprehensive and multi-angle study of China's capital flight has guiding significance to China's macroeconomic policy.In terms of scale estimation of capital flight between 1985 and 2015,I adopt the direct method,indirect measuring method.Besides,under the framework of indirect measuring method,I adopt the combined method of hybrid method(such as capital flight relating to foreign investment)and the rights and interests balance adjustment method(such as capital flight relating to trade misrepresenting).This article adopts the method of sample weight with 55 sample countries to estimate the scale of capital flight in China's import and export of misrepresenting to make the calculated value is more close to the actual value as far as possible.In addition,this article considers impact of the entrepot trade on the capital flight measurement,using relevant customs data to estimate the transit trade,then eliminate the value-added part of the transit trade impact on capital flight.The calculation of capital flight is still no conclusion,due to the difficulty of measuring and complexity,the calculates of capital flight can't be very accurate.As the formation of capital flight,the theory of domestic analysis and foreign study is numerous.The cause of capital flight has different opinions,but the real cause of China's capital flight is likely to be just part of it.This article based on the thorough analysis at the economic level,(the economic growth rate,discrimination of domestic and foreign capital,spreads,foreign debt,currency mismatch)and the institutional level(corruption,protection of the property,the wage distribution system),analyze the related factors influencing the scale of capital flight of China,select the relevant variables,establish SVAR model.With a new perspective of the new characteristics of capital flight in China,this paper conduct empirical research to find the influence of the selected variables on capital flight.Eventually come to the conclusion that the difference of interest rate between domestic and abroad,foreign debt level,currency mismatch,discrimination of foreign and internal business has positive effect to capital flight.At the institutional level,salary distribution system and corruption play significant role in promoting capital flight.Futhermore,this paper analyzes contribution degree of various factors on the impact of capital flight through variance decomposition.In this paper,there are five parts.The first part is the introduction,which mainly is the background of selected topic,the definition of capital flight and the literature review of estimation methods.The second part is mainly the main channel and scale estimation of capital flight in China.Based on the previous methods,this paper calculates the amount of capital flight in 1985-2015.The third part mainly analyzes the causes of capital flight in China.The fourth part is the empirical test and analysis of the influence factors of capital flight by establishing SVAR model.The fifth part puts forward some suggestions on the capital flight of China.