A Grey Forecasting Model Improved By Cuckoo Search Algorithm For Forecasting The Annual Consumption Of Natural Gas In China

In recent years,as a kind of high-quality,clean and efficient energy,annual consumption of natural gas has been increasing rapidly in the world,so does its share in primary energy consumption structure.With the rapid economic growth and the accelerated process of industrialization,China consumes more natural gas comparing with other countries.In particular,as natural environment in China is deteriorating,air pollution situation becomes pretty serious,China has to adjust energy consumption structure.Coal is the major source of energy consumption in China,also contributed to the current fog and haze of the main culprits.To change the increasingly serious environmental problems,on the one hand,we need to reduce the proportion of coal in primary energy consumption structure,on the other hand,its excellent alternative energy sources——natural gas consumption will gradually rise.However,as a kind of non-renewable energy sources,China’s natural gas storage capacity is limited,and will be less and less in the future.Therefore,understand the use of the current status of China’s natural gas consumption in primary energy structure,and the annual consumption of natural gas to predict the future of China,are conducive to understand the current situation of China’s energy use and help energy authorities in accordance with the current and future China Gas the annual consumption of energy usage formulate relevant policies.This article is to carry out research on China’s annual consumption of natural gas based on this background.In order to have effective research on annual consumption of natural gas,we need to do the research on the basis of previous studies.In this paper,related research domestic and abroad were reviewed,which showed that both in foreign and domestic,the study of the annual consumption of natural gas in general can be attributed to two categories:One conducted by relationship-based factors for extraction of natural gas consumption,the study of these factors on the annual consumption of natural gas quantitative relationship;the second is based on time series of historical data series of annual consumption of natural gas,which is based establishment of annual gas consumption for the next model to extract the historical data information to predict the future.Based on the previous studies,we have found that there are many and complex factors which can influence annual gas consumption,it is not easy to include all factors in the correlation-based methods,and the use of a single time series methods can not extract all the hidden factors in the time series well due to the limitations of the applicability of the method resistance.Thus,more and more scholars have used a combination of forecasting methods,in order to give full play to the advantages of different research methods and improve prediction accuracy.What is more,more and more intelligent algorithm is used in combination forecasting method.The gray model method is widely used because of its treatment of gray system(contain explicit information and hidden information).Considering the data used in this text is a 35 data series from 1980 to 2014 belonging to the small sample data for gray model studies,it is suitable to use grey model.Meanwhile,in order to improve the prediction accuracy,an intelligent algorithm——cuckoo search algorithm optimization gray model is adapted for the first time in this paper.This is the background of the research methods choose.Based on a 35 data series from 1980 to 2014,four grey models(GM(1,1)、DGM、RDG and p-RDGM)and an optimization grey model based on cuckoo search algorithm(CS-RDGM)are used for model construction.Comparing the prediction accuracy of different models,we found that the CS-RDGM model performed the highest accuracy.On this base,this optimization model is used in this paper to make prediction for China’s natural gas consumption in the future,which shows that natural gas consumption in China will increase continuously,more than 120Bcm will increased in the next 5 years,and the average annual growth rate is around 12.25%.On the one hand,this is due to the rapid increase of economy,on the other hand,this is the result of energy structure adjustment,showing the great potential of China’s natural gas consumption market in the future,as well as the pressure on the natural gas industry.Cuckoo search algorithm is adapted in this paper to optimize grey models for the first time,and got pretty good result,which provides reference for the application of cuckoo search algorithm in the natural gas consumption prediction in the future.Meanwhile,higher prediction result also provides more reliable data for the policy maker.Base on this prediction data,this paper provide policy suggestion below:Firstly,we can develop clean energy;Secondly,developing unconventional natural gas.Thirdly,we should improve the efficiency of natural gas use.Fourthly,we can consider adjusting the energy consumption structure.