Research On Beijing's Energy Consumption Forecasting Based On LSSVM Improved Model

Nowadays,the strategy of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei collaboration development has been promoted to a national top-level development strategy.The coordinated development of industry,is an important work of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei coordinated development.However,there are many problems,such as weak economic diffusion effect,serious environmental pollution,and low comprehensive utilization of resources.Economic development and resources and environmental constraints has become main contradiction of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei collaboration development.Beijing,as the core of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei collaboration development,has suffered from "urban diseases" such as population growth,traffic congestion and air pollution in recent years.To solve the economic,resource and environmental problems,do a good job of energy consumption management division is the key.According to the result of research,this paper puts forward the promotion strategy of Beijing energy consumption management under the background of collaboration development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,and which is beneficial to solve the problem of "big city disease" in Beijing.And it has important practical significance on industrial synergistic development,Industrial transfer policy formulation,the promotion of coordinated development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.In this paper,energy consumption in Beijing under the synergistic development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei is studied.Based on the historical data from 1995 to 2014,and the analysis of the current situation of energy consumption in Beijing,this paper studies the main influencing factors of energy consumption in Beijing and forecasts the development trend of energy consumption.Firstly,on the basis of combing domestic and international research present situation,this paper analyzes and explains the theory method of energy consumption and the forecast.Secondly,based on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei synergistic development strategy,this paper expounds the function orientation of Beijing,and analyzes the energy consumption of Beijing and its influencing factors.And the reasons for the change of each variable are analyzed.On this basis,the LMDI decomposition model is used to analyze the energy consumption of the three industries and life energy consumption.The energy consumption is decomposed into six aspects: population effect,economic level effect,industrial structure effect,production energy consumption intensity,consumption effect of residents and energy consumption intensity of living energy,and quantitatively calculate the contribution degree of each factor to energy consumption.The factors that are positively driven include population effect,economic level effect and residents consumption effect.The negative driving factors mainly include industrial structure effect,production energy consumption intensity and life energy consumption intensity.And the impact mechanism of each factor on energy consumption is analyzed according to the result.Then the least squares support vector machine algorithm optimized by cuckoo algorithm are used to construct the corresponding forecasting model of energy consumption.Finally,basing on the historical development of Beijing,the relevant planning policy,we defines two different situations: the baseline situation and the effective coordinated development situation,and set up different population,real GDP,the proportion of tertiary industry,energy consumption intensity,the level of consumption and other parameters for different scenarios of different levels of development.Then we forecast the energy consumption in Beijing from 2015 to 2020,and get the following results: By 2020,the total energy consumption in Beijing will reach 82.56 million tons of standard coal under the baseline scenario.Under effective synergistic development,the total amount is 78.94 million tons of standard coal.Finally,according to the research results,this paper proposes the promotion strategy of Beijing energy consumption development under the background of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cooperation.