Research On The Risk Of Local Government Debt In China

After 2008,international financial debt has led to frequent government debt crisis all over the world.Naturally,Chinese government debt has been a hot spot and attracted the attention of the whole society.Many foreign researchers also do research for the issue and draw different conclusions.The rapid increase in local debt makes the financial risks and financial risks expand,the growing credit risk of the government has aroused the international community,our government and the people had concerned Highly about this matter,and thus formed concerns about the Chinese economy from the government to various research institutions,colleges and universities which are in the investigation,the calculation of local government debt and risk.Taking into account the integrity of the statistical data of the relevant agencies,this paper uses the data of the National Audit Office in 2013(the third national government debt audit),based mainly on the analysis of debt risk for China's current region(provincial,Municipality),to analyze the relevant indicators,more and more systematic description of China's local government debt risk specific situation.From the perspective of the composition of the debt,taking mainly into account the current government debt(all levels of government),through regional comparison and the relevant economic indicators,the division of different types of local government debt risk is divided.It is meaningful to secure the national economy by analyzing how to control the debt risk and keep financial stability.The thesis analyzes the status of substantial government debt by applying the data from the PRC government debt statistical result(State Auditing Administration).As for the debt balance,the total amount of all levels of government increased a lot,municipal government accounts for the largest part,then county and town governments also bear huge debt and rigid liquidity burden.As for the debt resources,bank loans account for the most part,but the rapidly-developed financial resources like BT and trust finance brings new risks to government debt.As for the principal of debt,financial platform accounts for the most percentage.As for the debt period,the pressure is relieved in recent years,but the debt period does not match with program cash flow and easy to bring �liquidity risk�.Combining the empirical analysis of historic debt data,we can see substantial debt scale,the debt repaying ability and financial expenditure level,at the same time,we realized the horizontal comparison of different municipal's debt risks,and also revealed thesevere debt status of central and western regions.These regions call for our attention and continuous supervision by its over-debt performance.The continuous evaluation for the sustainability of substantial government debt,we can foresee the unstable risk involved in the operating model of substantial government in the future.From the debt maturity distribution,the debt service pressure will be eased year by year,but the debt maturity and project cash flow distribution is easy to bring liquidity risk.Based on the above analysis,the thesis assumes to applying following methods to avoid government debt risks: transforming the government functions,updating the authority of financial and office,normalizing the debt issuing mechanism and promoting financial model,issuing government bonds to decrease loan demands to control the debt scale.