| As an important financing tool for local governments in China,government debt is making up for local financial resources and promoting the development of regional social and economic undertakings.At the same time,debt risks,especially hidden debt risks,are accumulating and increasingly prominent,and have become a possible “Grey Rhinoceros” of China's economy.In this context,the central government has introduced a series of laws,regulations and policies,and the scale and risks of local government debt have been initially controlled.However,the institutional problems behind local government debt have not been fundamentally resolved.Local government debt risk management also has problems such as inadequate implicit debt considerations,insufficient quantitative research on risk causes,and insufficient comprehensive risk assessment.Therefore,it is necessary to re-examine the local government debt risk in the framework of “local government debt risk formation mechanism?risk assessment?risk management”.On the basis of combing the existing research results,this paper sorts out the development process of local government debt in China.Based on relevant public data such as the National Audit Office and the Ministry of Finance,the current situation of the size and structure of local government debt is analyzed.On this basis,the causes of local government debt risk are analyzed from four dimensions: fiscal decentralization,political system,macro policy and debt management,and verified by provincial panel data.Then,the debt risk is fully evaluated using conventional indicators,balance sheets and local government debt risk assessment systems.Next,the experiences of local government debt risk management in the United States,Japan and other countries are summarized.Finally,with the goal of controlling debt risk within the limits of local government,the paper puts forward ideas and measures for effectively managing local government debt risk from the relationship between debt risk management and economic society development,and the central government and local government.The main research contents and results of this paper are as follows:First,on the basis of sorting out relevant literature and reports,the status quo of local government debt in China is analyzed.The development process of local government debt is reviewed from four stages: before the founding of the People'sRepublic of China,after the founding of the People's Republic of China,the early stage of reform and opening up,and after the reform of the tax-sharing system.It is found that the local government debt in China has its inevitability and necessity.Then,the current situation of the scale of local government debt in China(including the size of the debt with direct repayment responsibility and the size of implicit debt)and the status quo of the structure(including the administrative level,regional,borrowing main body,source of funds,debt investment,debt repayment period,etc.)is carried out in-depth analysis.Second,the causes of local government debt risk in China are deeply analyzed.The article analyzes the causes of debt risk from four perspectives: fiscal decentralization,political system,macro policy and debt management system.It is found that the fiscal decentralization factor is the root cause of the formation of local government debt risk,and the performance evaluation factor in the political system is the internal motivation of risk formation,the macro policy factor is the catalyst for risk formation,and the debt management system factor is the technical level of risk formation.Third,according to the above analysis,the influencing factors of local government debt risk are quantitatively analyzed from the provincial level.Based on the availability of data,using panel data of 30 provincial governments for 2010-2017,the fixed-effects model is used to empirically analyze the influencing factors of debt risk.The results show that fiscal decentralization factors and performance evaluation factors have a significant impact on local government debt risk.Among them,the higher the degree of fiscal decentralization,the lower the debt risk;the more intense the promotion competition between local governments,the higher the debt risk.By comparing the quantitative analysis results with the previous theoretical analysis logic,the quantitative analysis results are consistent with the internal logic of local government debt risk formation,which provides an empirical basis for managing the local government debt risk.Fourth,the level of local government debt risk is evaluated in a multi-angle,comprehensive and objective manner.Firstly,according to the local government debt risk performance form,the debt risk is divided into scale risk,structural risk,efficiency risk and external risk,and they are separately elaborated.Then,using six general indicators such as debt burden ratio,debt rate and debt repayment rate,the debt risk isevaluated item by item.The results show that the overall risk of local government debt in China is controllable,there is a certain amount of debt space,but the problem of implicit debt is serious.The risks in the region,especially in the less developed regions of the central and western regions,cannot be ignored.Then,by constructing a local government balance sheet,the debt risk is analyzed separately from the perspective of total assets and liquid assets.The study finds that from the perspective of total assets,the total assets of local governments in China can cover their total liabilities and have a certain amount of space;from the perspective of liquid assets,when the contingent debt conversion rate is higher than 50%,it is necessary to be vigilant and pay attention to local government debt risk.Finally,under the dual policy of stable growth and risk prevention,a comprehensive assessment of debt risk is carried out by constructing an assessment system of local government debt risk.The results show that the debt risk scores of the economically developed eastern provinces are lower,while the debt risk scores of the less developed western provinces are higher,that is,the degree of local government debt risk has a significant negative correlation with the regional economic development.Fifth,the experience of foreign government debt risk management is studied comparatively.By introducing the current situation of local government debt and risk management system in the United States and Japan,and sorting out the practices of Brazil and Mexico in dealing with local government debt crisis,and expounding Colombia's debt risk warning experience,the article draws some points for China's local government debt risk management.Revelation: the combination of local government debt financing mechanism and management,the combination of local government debt system constraints and market supervision,the combination of local government debt risk and macroeconomic regulation,and the combination of pre-warning and post-treatment for local government debt crisis.Finally,based on the above analysis,this paper puts forward the ideas and policy recommendations of local government debt risk management in China.This paper argues that for the management of local government debt risk,it is necessary to deal with the relationship between debt risk management and economic development,urbanization and regional differences from the perspective of macroeconomic and social development.And in order to control debt risk within the limits of local government,itis also necessary to combine the causes of debt risk with risk management,incorporate risk management into the overall framework of fiscal and taxation system reform and administrative management system reform,and improve the internal management mechanism of debt risk. |
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