Research On Financial Support Of China's Rural Long-term Care Insurance System Based On Demanding Analysis

Nursing care for the elderly with the aggravation of the aging has become a global problem to be solved.China is the only country where elderly population exceeded 100 million,what's more,elderly aged over 60 in rural areas has been more than 100 million and there is a huge demand for care.Therefore,many scholars have emphasized that the long-term care insurance system should be established as soon as possible,but very few scholars have studied the rural long-term care insurance system and their studies are mainly in theoretical analysis or necessity analysis lacked of the financial analysis.This study discusses the role which the government should play and the responsibility it should bear to provide data support for the government fiscal subsidies of rural long-term care insurance and demonstrate the financial viability of rural long-term care insurance,based on analyzing the present situation of nursing demand of rural disabled elderly.Firstly,this paper compares the different contents and financial responsibilities of long-term care insurance system in German and Japan.Combining with the actual situation of serious population aging,high disability rate,concentrated economic sources and imperfect system of social security in China's rural areas,this study considers that China's rural long-term care insurance should be classified as social insurance which implements the PAYG system and the government also should be in charge of corresponding financial responsibility.Secondly,this paper designs a macro-simulation demand model in which there are data of rural disabled elderly from Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey(CLHLS)in 2011 and result of the population projections from Population Administration Decision Information System(PADI)to estimate the total demand of rural long-term care insurance in 2015-2045.Finally,this paper establishes a macro-simulation supply model based on the principle"Defrayment Determines Income" and calculates the annual premium per capita to calculate the annual premium per capita and the level of financial support of rural long-term care insurance in 2015-2045,according to three different levels of fiscal subsidies—0%,30%and 50%.This paper sets two kinds of payment crowds—16-64 years old rural residents and 40-64 years old rural residents for the calculate model.According to the estimation results,we can draw the following conclusions:?total demand of China's rural long-term care insurance shows a gro,wth trend in 2015-2045.?financial subsidy policy of government should not only consider the urban-rural gap,but also adopt appropriate subsidy levels for different income levels,so that some rural residents can avoid economic pressures.?although the financial subsidy from the government and rural annual premium per capita show a upward trend,the ratio of financial subsidy to total financial revenue and the ratio of annual premium per capita to upper limit of the premium show a downward trend except little fluctuation which the goverrnment and individuals can bear.According to the calculation,this paper finally gives some suggestions on the policies to set up China's rural long-term care insurance.