| Along with the progressing and development of the global economy's integration,financial industry and international trade,as the main motivating factors,made tremendous contributions to the rapid development of the world economy.And in the process of trade globalization and modernization,finance is becoming ever more central,the interaction has increasingly appeared in the process of the multinational economic regional integration,and the exchange rate is the key bridge that connects finance and international trade:One hand,the exchange rate volatility have significant effect on international trade flows,so most countries especially export-dependency ones become very cautious on the choice of exchange rate regime.Meanwhile,foreign exchange market which determines rate of currency exchange is one of most important parts of financial markets,so the development of a country's financial industry widely affects exchange rate's formation process and market reaction to exchange rate signal,thus has indirect effect on the international trade.The other hand,the financial crisis under the background of economic globalization is likely to cause multinational diffusivity shock on the real economy and foreign trade.Apparently,exchange rate is a relatively important role in the crisis transmission mechanism.At present,domestic and foreign scholars through continuous research and empirical.Analysis found that:the improvement of a country's financial development has a significant role in promoting the international trade in the country,at the same time,there is also some kind of long-term correspondence between international trade and exchange rate volatility.But these are analyzed from the impact of unilateral conduct,there is few people put these three facts in one frame,considering the three long-term effects of those relationships.This article built a unified model,putting the three factors in one model,research and analyze the relationship between the three comprehensive,texting the direct impact of financial development on the development of foreign trade,and the indirect impact financial development on the development of foreign trade through exchange rate volatility.Combing the generated conclusions with the actual economic situation,it expects to solve China's current various problems in the foreign trade from the point of financial development and exchange rate regime separately,in order to making a contribution the achieving stable and healthy international trade and sustainable development,also proposing individual policy recommendations on the future development of China's financial roads,upgrading of industrial structure at this stage,and continuously push forward the economic transformation.This paper utilizes panel data of 14 developed and emerging economies during 1980-2012,to analysis the effect of real effective exchange rate volatility,financial development and their interaction on export trade by using co-integration analysis,granger causality test system and generalized method of moments.The measurement result shows that effective exchange rate volatility and financial development level respectively have a long-term stable relationship with export growth.Furthermore,the level of one country's financial development affect the sensitivity of export trade to real effective exchange rate volatility:With the improvement of financial development level,the influence of the real effective exchange rate volatility on export trade presents a gradual transition from impediment to promotion.Therefore,financial development level and foreign trade shall be included in the same framework for consideration when determining one country's exchange rate arrangement.In addition,the export growth of sample countries presents the convergence. |
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