The Study Of The Fluctuations In International Oil Price Effect On China's Economic Growth

Oil as an important energy strategy,it has a huge influence for a country's economy.From the view of history and current situation,each time volatility in international oil prices,it will have a profound impact on the world economy.2016 is the first year of"Thirteen Five—Year Plan",China's economic development has entered a new normal,our country is in key strategic opportunity period for building a moderately prosperous society and to build the level of moderately developed countries,oil resources takes an important role in the development of economy and society.China's oil consumption in 2015 up to 559.7 million tons,but due to the relative shortage of petroleum resources,the annual production only 214.6 million tons,existing huge oil demand gap.Our country has been a net oil importer in 1993,imports increased year by year,China's oil imports in 2015 were 334 million tons,an increase of 8.80%.China for the first time surpassed the US to become the world's largest oil import country.Today.China's dependence on foreign oil has more than 60%,already more than 50%of the internationally recognized security red line,High oil dependence makes great hidden danger existing in Chinese energy supply security,international oil price volatility affects the economic development of China.Therefore,the study of the fluctuation of international oil prices and its impact on China's economic growth,expound clearly the international oil price impact on China's economy mechanism,To our country economy has the extremely important theory value and practical significance.This article's specific contents are as follows:First,through the study of the theory of the international oil price fluctuations and the economic growth in China,Come to the conclusion:the influence of international oil price fluctuations on China's economic growth mechanism,Mainly through consumption,investment and net export three factors,the increase of international oil prices will reduce consumption?investment and net exports,thus unfavorable to our country economic growth.But the increase of international oil prices will reversed transmission enterprise R&D investment,Optimize the structure of energy consumption,reduce the use of oil,production of high value-added products,low energy consumption transformation of the pattern of economic development,increase the added value of products,technical progress factor in the long-term for economic growth has a promoting role.Second,using empirical analysis method,using stationarytest,co integration analysis,regression analysis and error correction model and granger causality test,impulse response function of measurement method to come to the conclusion:in the long run,the international oil prices on China's economic growth has a promoting effect;In short,the international oil price fluctuations has negative impact on the economic growth of our country,the increase of international oil price will make China's economic growth rate decline;International oil price fluctuation is the granger cause of economic growth in our country,but China's economic growth has little influence on the international oil price fluctuation.Thirdly,on the basis of empirical analysis,in order to play the role of oil resources in economic development,to avoid the adverse impact of oil price fluctuations on China's economy,this paper from the strategic oil reserve,oil pricing mechanism,the strategic oil supply,the oil futures market four factors to gives proposals,aimed at by the above recommendations in four areas beneficial to enhance the security of our oil energy,to enhancing our economic capacity on withstand adverse shocksof the international oil price fluctuations,and thus conducive to sustained and stable development of economic health.